On April 13, Santiment flagged that negative posts about XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) had nearly overtaken positive ones, something that has only happened twice in the past two years. XRP holders are rattled right now, with the price dropping below the $1.40-$1.45 range once again, and holding on to $1.39. The price dip shows the bears are back in control, flipping the market sentiment negative.
However, the last few times the market sentiment was this low, the XRP price eventually rallied. February 2025’s sentiment low was followed by an 82% rally to a new cycle high by July. We’re not saying that’s guaranteed to happen again, but the setup today looks almost identical to the previous recoveries. So is XRP gearing up for another surprise rally this time around?
Why Is XRP Sentiment So Low Right Now?
To understand the mood around XRP today, you have to follow the price. XRP has dropped in value by over 60% in the past nine months, plunging from the $3.65 cycle high in July 2025. The decline has led to rapid sell-offs and weakened XRP’s market structure to the point that its short-term direction remains uncertain
The pressure on the XRP price is also being driven by global macro conditions. For years, investors have borrowed cheaply in Japan and invested in higher-yielding assets like crypto, a strategy known as the yen carry trade. As Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed toward 1.97–1.98%, borrowing costs have risen, forcing investors to sell riskier positions, including XRP.
Moreover, geopolitical issues in the Middle East have also contributed to traders selling their XRP holdings in favor of safer investments like gold or bonds.
In short, the mood around XRP has turned more negative than in previous downturns. Analytics firms like Santiment are reporting a surge in negative conversations on social media, with more people openly questioning whether XRP is truly decentralized, what real-world problem it solves, and who really controls the network. These criticisms aren’t new, but they’re getting louder because XRP’s price has given people a reason to voice them.
Similarities Between Now and The Last Two Sentiment Lows
Santiment’s data points to two prior occasions within the last two years when social sentiment on XRP dropped into similarly bearish territory, and both times, a meaningful price rally followed.
In February 2025, XRP’s sentiment dropped to a ratio of 0.96 bullish to 1.00 bearish, meaning there were actually more bearish comments than bullish ones. XRP was trading around $2.00 at the time and went on to rally 82% to a cycle high of $3.65 by July. In October 2025, the ratio stood at 1.01 bullish per 1.00 bearish, and XRP also temporarily rebounded from its decline after the cycle high.
Today, the ratio is at 1.02 bullish per 1.00 bearish, which is the third-most bearish reading in the last two years. The pattern across these periods is similar to what’s happening right now. XRP has been in steady decline, market confidence is low, and many retail traders are selling their holdings. When everyone leans bearish like that, there’s barely anyone left to sell, which often creates room for a sharp reversal.
However, today’s setup includes certain factors that didn’t exist in April 2025. Firstly, there’s Spot XRP ETFs, which launched in mid-November 2025 and have pulled in over $1.29 billion in cumulative net inflows. The SEC also classified XRP as a digital commodity back in March, further cementing XRP’s legal status.
Right now, XRP is trading below its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, which tells you the bearish trend hasn’t reversed yet. Until a real catalyst shows up—like the CLARITY Act passing, a macro shift, or a broader crypto market recovery—the XRP price is unlikely to experience a major rally anytime soon.
4 Catalysts That Could Spark the Next XRP Rally
For XRP to go on a bullish run similar to what happened after the February 2025 sentiment low, several things need to line up.
1. The CLARITY Act
The CLARITY Act is a bill working its way through the U.S. Senate that would permanently and legally classify XRP as a commodity, under U.S. law. This classification matters because XRP’s current commodity status was established through a joint SEC-CFTC framework in March, but only legislation can make it permanent.
If the CLARITY Act passes, large institutional investors, including pension funds, insurance companies, and wealth managers would be able to buy XRP without worrying about regulatory risk.
2. Whale Accumulation
On-chain data reveal that large wallets are adding more than 11 million XRP every day, with the Whale Flow 30DMA at a 10-month high. When large holders buy and move coins off exchanges into private wallets, it suggests they don’t plan to sell soon. Large holders buying quietly while everyone else panics has historically preceded price increases.
3. XRP Investment Fund Inflows
XRP investment products pulled in $119.6 million in net inflows for the week ending April 11, which was the strongest week since December 2025. U.S. spot XRP ETFs specifically have seen cumulative net inflows of approximately $1.29 billion since launching in November, with total net assets of around $1.06 billion.
Investors who buy XRP through ETFs tend to be longer-term and far less likely to panic-sell on a bad day. If inflows keep building over the coming weeks, it would add sustained buying pressure that supports the price.
4. Bitcoin’s Direction
XRP almost never makes a big move upward when Bitcoin is falling as BTC sets the tone for the entire crypto market, and XRP follows it closely. Any improvement in Bitcoin’s trend, whether from a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, improving global trade conditions, or a broad shift in market mood, would give XRP the momentum it needs.
Is This A Buying Opportunity or a Trap?
This looks more like an opportunity than a trap, but only if you’re watching the right signals. The February 2025 setup had maximum fear with a 0.96 bullish-to-bearish ratio, and what followed was an 82% rally to a new cycle high. The October 2025 setup was similar, and XRP rebounded from there as well.
Today’s setup has the same extreme bearishness, but with a stronger foundation underneath it—ETFs pulling in real money, the SEC’s commodity classification, and whale accumulation at levels not seen in months. The biggest thing to watch is the CLARITY Act markup. A positive outcome there, even just an advancement out of committee, could be the catalyst that triggers a rally.
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