Every time the XRP price approaches $1.45, bears show up and stall its momentum, preventing the rally from holding. XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has been trapped between $1.30 and $1.50 since the war between the U.S. and Iran started in late February, and even with the current ceasefire easing the macro pressure on the market, the $1.45 resistance hasn’t budged.
Despite the XRP price remaining range-bound, the buying says otherwise. XRP spot ETFs have pulled in $81.63 million in April so far, making it the best inflow month of 2026 and erasing March’s outflows. Bitwise has overtaken Canary Capital as the largest XRP ETF, with institutional money replacing the retail rush that drove initial launch flows.
So why is the strongest XRP ETF demand of 2026 not moving the price, and what would it actually take to break the $1.45 resistance?
XRP ETFs Just Had Their Best Month Since Recovery Began
A month ago, XRP ETFs were bleeding. March handed the funds their first-ever monthly outflow at $31.16 million, ending four straight months of positive flows since the products launched in mid-November 2025. The Iran war had crashed XRP from $2.40 to $1.11 in late February, and ETF investors followed by pulling money out for the first time, as the post-launch buying run was over.
April has turned things around and the funds have brought in $81.63 million so far this month, lifting cumulative net inflows to a fresh high of $1.29 billion and fully erasing March’s loss. The funds have not logged any outflows for three weeks, since a single day of outflows on April 9.
The strongest inflow week of the year has happened this April too—$55.39 million through April 17—and it wasn’t a one-off spike. The funds have logged inflows nearly every day this month, putting them back on the trajectory they had before March broke it.
Bitwise Just Overtook Canary as the Largest XRP ETF
From the moment XRP ETFs launched, Canary Capital was the clear winner. Its November 13 debut was one of the biggest ETF launches of 2025, and Canary held the cumulative lead all the way through the early 2026 price rally. That changed this month, when Bitwise pulled ahead with $425.61 million in cumulative inflows, edging past Canary’s $421.86 million.
Canary built its lead in the launch frenzy, when retail investors piled into the first XRP ETF on the market. That demand has now dried up—Canary has logged just $445,260 in inflows so far this month, while Bitwise has pulled in $39.59 million and Franklin Templeton $22.69 million. The retail rush is over, and institutional-favorite funds are now taking the inflows.
One could ask why Franklin Templeton and Bitwise? Bitwise runs the most liquid XRP ETF, which is what big institutional buyers need to trade in size without moving the price. Franklin Templeton is a $1.5 trillion asset manager and charges 0.19%, half what most XRP ETF competitors charge.
Liquidity, scale, and a low fee—those are exactly the features pension funds, family offices, and asset managers look for, and that’s why those two are getting the inflows now. Bitwise overtaking Canary marks the moment institutional money took over the XRP ETF flows, but the price still hasn’t reflected it.
The Reasons XRP’s Price Isn’t Reflecting the ETF Demand
The renewed institutional buying should be lifting the XRP price, but the token is trading at $1.40—barely up over the past week and still locked inside the same $1.30-$1.45 range it’s been since the Iran war. Two obstacles explain the disconnect, and both have to ease before the buying shows up on the chart.
The first comes from the XRP holders themselves. About 60% of XRP’s circulating supply was bought at an average price of $1.44, per Glassnode data. It shows millions of wallets have been underwater for months.
So, every time XRP approaches $1.45, those holders sell to break even, take profit or exit. Even XRP’s biggest regulatory win of the year—the SEC and CFTC joint commodity classification—couldn’t punch through the resistance and hold. XRP spiked to $1.60 on the news but the bears pushed it back below $1.45 within a week. This month’s $82 million in ETF inflows so far proves the demand is there, but it isn’t enough buying volume yet to absorb that overhead supply.
The second comes from the wider market. Bitcoin is up 4.2% on the week and just ended its own four-month ETF outflow streak with $996 million in inflows in the week ending April 17. When BTC leads a recovery, capital concentrates in Bitcoin first, then drifts to Ethereum, and then finally to altcoins like XRP.
Moreover, XRP tracks Bitcoin’s move roughly 80% of the time but only picks up the spillover. Until Bitcoin holds firmly above $80,000 and capital starts rotating out into altcoins, the overhead supply at the $1.45 resistance will keep absorbing XRP’s ETF demand instead of letting it break through.
What Could Trigger XRP’s Breakout to Reflect the ETF Buying
Steady ETF flows alone don’t break supply walls. XRP’s two real moves in 2026 both needed a trigger layered on top of the buying. In early January, XRP rallied 25% in a week when its MACD flipped bullish at the same time as strong ETF inflows.
On April 17, XRP hit $1.50 for the first time since March after breaking above its Ichimoku Cloud the same week the ETFs pulled in $55.39 million. Both rallies needed buying and a trigger, and right now the buying is there but the trigger isn’t.
The key catalyst for XRP right now is the CLARITY Act. The bill is now waiting on a markup, with 120 crypto firms including Coinbase and Ripple sending a letter on April 23 asking the Senate to act. If the markup gets scheduled and the bill clears committee in May, April’s institutional buying will have the catalyst needed to impact the price.
But if the markup isn’t scheduled in May, the supply wall will keep absorbing the inflows and XRP will probably remain range-bound between $1.30 to $1.50 for the rest of the year.
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