XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) briefly broke back above $1.40 today, after dipping toward $1.35 earlier in the week. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to mark up the CLARITY Act in May, and that’s the catalyst XRP has been waiting on for months. However, Chairman Tim Scott still hasn’t set a markup date, and the Senate’s Memorial Day recess starts May 21.
If the markup doesn’t happen in May, XRP could lose its biggest catalyst, and the institutions waiting on legal clarity won’t commit capital. So what happens to the XRP price if the CLARITY Act fails in May? Here’s where we think XRP could trade if the bill stalls again.
What Happens If the CLARITY Act Misses Its May Deadline?
The May 21 deadline for the CLARITY Act matters because of what comes after it. The Senate enters a weeklong recess after the May 21 Memorial Day, and the timeline on the calendar from there on is slim.
There are three working weeks each in June and July, one in August, then a five-week recess until September 14 and October completely off for midterm campaigns. So, if Tim Scott doesn’t schedule the markup before May 21, the bill has a slim chance of ever progressing in 2026.
Five separate steps still stand between the bill and the President’s desk. After committee markup, four more steps remain: a 60-vote Senate floor vote, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version that passed January 29, reconciliation with the House-passed CLARITY Act, and President Trump’s signature. The floor procedure alone could take two to three weeks, so the Banking Committee has to clear the bill by mid-May for a 2026 floor vote to be possible.
Polymarket has been pricing this in, with the odds of the bill being signed into law in 2026 dropping to 64% in mid-April, and currently at 46% today. That means, if the bill misses the May 21 markup, it will most likely roll into 2027 at the earliest.
Senator Cynthia Lummis commented on the issue during the Bitcoin 2026 conference that a failed markup in May means waiting until at least 2030, because a new Congress would have to restart the entire legislative process. Either way, XRP will lose its biggest catalyst this year if the bill stalls again.
How Low XRP Could Drop If the CLARITY Act Misses May
XRP briefly reclaimed $1.40 today, but has dropped back to $1.39. The $1.45 resistance remains the key level to break as it has rejected every rally attempt to break higher. If the CLARITY Act misses the May markup, XRP would go back to grinding sideways, and could drop as low as $1.
The most likely outcome is XRP trading in the $1.30-$1.40 range it’s been for the past three months. If Tim Scott doesn’t schedule the markup before May 21, XRP will likely slide toward $1.32-$1.35. The first major support is $1.28, which has held strong since the late February drop, following the start of the Iran war.
For the XRP price to drop below $1.28, it needs more than a CLARITY Act miss. If Bitcoin breaks below $70,000 in May or the Iran war escalates again, XRP could test $1.20, which is a psychological floor. Below $1.20, the next major support is $1.11, where XRP bottomed during the February crash.
The XRP Catalysts That Don’t Depend on the CLARITY Act
XRP has two catalysts in May that don’t depend on the CLARITY Act passing—the Fed Chair switch on May 15, and the institutional money that’s been flowing into XRP ETFs since April.
The first is the Fed Chair switch on May 15. Powell’s term ends, and Kevin Warsh takes over after the Senate Banking Committee advanced his nomination 13-11 on April 29. Warsh has spent the past year arguing the Fed waited too long to cut rates, so he could push for cuts faster than Powell when he assumes office. His first FOMC meeting is June 16.
The second is the buying that came back to XRP ETFs in April. After seeing $31 million in outflows in March—the worst month XRP ETFs have ever posted—the funds pulled in $82 million in April with no outflow days since April 9.
Bitwise overtook Canary Capital as the largest XRP ETF mid-month, with $39.6 million flowing in versus Canary’s $445,260. Bitwise and Franklin Templeton are the funds professional money uses for size, which means the April flows are coming from allocators rather than retail.
Although the two catalysts can’t replace the upside potential the CLARITY Act would unlock, both could limit how low XRP would drop if the bill fails.
What XRP Holders Should Do If the CLARITY Act Fails in May
If you hold XRP, the bill failing in May isn’t a reason to sell. The bill’s eventual passage—whether 2026, 2027, or later—is what gives institutions the legal framework they need to commit capital to XRP.
Ripple CTO David Schwartz called the CLARITY Act passing “the starting gun” at XRP Las Vegas. Ripple isn’t waiting on the CLARITY Act alone—its Federal Reserve master account application is still pending, and its OCC banking charter is already conditionally approved. The key thing to watch remains the Senate’s calendar. If a markup gets scheduled before May 21, then XRP could test $1.50-$1.70. But if May 21 passes without one, the question moves to whether the bill can pass at all this year.
Either way, XRP should hold the $1.30-$1.45 range even if the bill fails, and it could break out of that range if macro conditions improve. An end to the Iran war could spark a market recovery, and XRP would ride the waves regardless of the markup outcome.
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