Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) briefly cleared $80,000 in early hours today, hitting an intraday high around $80,500 before pulling back to $79,770. That’s the first time BTC has traded above $80,000 since January 31, and it follows a 14.7% recovery since early April that took the coin from $68,000 to today’s level.
The move came after President Trump announced “Project Freedom” on Sunday—a U.S. operation to escort stranded commercial ships out of the Iranian-blocked Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. Brent crude fell nearly 5% on the news, easing the macro pressure that had weighed on the crypto market.
With the geopolitical headwind clearing, the question now is whether BTC can hold above $80,000 in May. We asked Grok about Bitcoin’s historical performance in May and what could decide the next move.
What Grok Says About Bitcoin’s May Performance
Grok says Bitcoin’s May performance shows considerable returns over the last 15 years. Bitcoin has ended May in positive territory in nine out of fifteen years, with a 60% win rate that leans bullish, though inconsistent.
The strongest Bitcoin May performances followed major events or shifts in market sentiment. Bitcoin’s 157% return in 2011 came after BTC gained mainstream visibility and crossed the $1 mark for the first time. In 2017, the Bitcoin price rallied 69% during the ICO boom that ran from 2016 through 2018. After the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin entered a recovery phase that delivered a 58% gain in May 2019, with momentum carrying through to a 166% Q2 gain.
However, the 40% decline rate in May is worth a closer look. Bitcoin declined in six out of those fifteen years, and half of those price drops were modest, coming below 10%. The other three steep drops were each tied to specific negative catalysts.
In 2018, BTC’s 18% drop followed regulatory pressure from the SEC’s crackdown on fraudulent ICOs. Tesla’s decision to suspend Bitcoin payments in 2021 fueled a 35% drop, while the 15% decline in 2022 followed the collapse of Terra/Luna, which triggered massive selloffs across the crypto market.
Even with those downturns, Bitcoin’s May performance leans toward the upside. That’s why traders’ expectations are running high, with Polymarket now pricing BTC reaching $85,000 in May with a 53% probability, giving even a $90,000 BTC price a 25% chance.
What Could Push Bitcoin Above $85,000 in May?
Grok says Bitcoin would push above $85,000 if these catalysts develop over the next few weeks.
CLARITY Act
The CLARITY Act’s passage is the most immediate timeline to watch. Lawmakers, including Senator Lummis and Tillis, are pressuring the Senate Banking Committee for a markup date in the second week of May.
The final stablecoin yield text, which had been the major sticking point in talks, has now been made public. That increases the chances of a markup before the May 21 Memorial Day recess, after which the Senate calendar tightens significantly.
If lawmakers move the bill through markup and into a Senate vote, it strengthens expectations about the CLARITY Act’s eventual passage. That’s the sort of momentum BTC needs to extend toward $85,000 and beyond.
Monetary Policy Expectations
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tenure ends on May 15, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over. Many expect Warsh to introduce a more dovish shift in U.S. monetary policy, with traders projecting that he could lean toward earlier rate cuts than Powell did. If Warsh signals openness to rate cuts in his early statements, high-risk assets could respond positively in anticipation of the move.
Bitcoin moved positively after the September 2024 cuts, which triggered a 5% upside to above $63,000. A similar 5% move from $79,770 puts BTC at $83,750, leaving the coin trading comfortably above the $80,000 level it just reclaimed.
Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical tensions have driven Bitcoin’s price performance more than any other catalyst in 2026. Today’s break above $80,000 came on the back of Trump’s Project Freedom announcement, but the rally still needs a full peace deal between the U.S. and Iran to stick.
Iranian state media recently announced that Iran sent a 14-point peace proposal to the U.S., which Trump confirmed Sunday. The proposal includes a 30-day negotiation window between both countries. The U.S. response—escorting stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz—is being read as a de-escalation signal rather than a military move.
If both countries reach a full peace deal in May, Bitcoin gets a clean risk-on boost. That’s likely the catalyst that pushes BTC past $85,000 and into the $87,000-$90,000 range.
What to Watch Next as Bitcoin Holds Above $80,000
Bitcoin has cleared the $80,000 level, but holding it is a different question. Today’s intraday high of $80,529 already pulled back to $79,770, and traders on Polymarket are pricing the move higher with caution—only 53% odds of $85,000 and 25% odds of $90,000 in May.
The pertinent thing is how the CLARITY Act plays out, and whether the bill gets fast-tracked to Trump’s desk for signing in May. Moreso, the developments in the U.S. and Iran peace talks too, could be a huge decider. If both countries reach a full agreement, that combined with the CLARITY Act passage would likely push BTC well past $85,000-$90,000.
That said, should the catalysts stall and BTC fail to hold above $79,000, then, a drop back to $75,000 support is also possible. A price break below $75,000 means BTC might fall back to $70,000, which could push the timeline for $85,000 well into the second half of the year.
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