What to Expect From Twitter Earnings

What analysts look for most critically from Twitter is growth in the monthly active user (MAUs) numbers. In the prior quarter, Twitter claimed 288 million MAUs, up 20% year-over-year. That was good, but did not meet expectations for 292 million MAUs. An analyst at Wedbush estimates that MAUs will climb to 302.4 million in the first quarter.

In a recent report from Jefferies, analysts listed eight reasons to buy Twitter now. Not the least of those was the company’s recent launch of Periscope, which gives the company a solid entry into the blisteringly hot online video ad space. Coupled with the rise in mobile advertising (88% of Twitter ads are mobile) is the fact that the company is targeting an advertising load of 5%, up by more than a factor of three in the past two quarters.

Twitter stock is up 41% year to date and nearly 23% since the company reported fourth-quarter earnings in early February. The consensus price target on the stock is $54.11, implying a potential gain of about 4.7%, based on Monday’s closing price. With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 62.59 and a market cap around $33 billion, investors are betting heavily on growth.

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As we have pointed out before, though, one problem investors are having is that Twitter no longer has any of its post-IPO hype — and investors today are buying the earnings flow on a constant 2015 basis out to nearly the year of 2150, and they are paying up for the constant-level sales out to the year 2028. Those are of course arbitrary numbers, but growth is already slowing at Twitter, even if it is still high growth.

Ahead of Tuesday’s earnings report, shares traded down about 1.6% in the mid-morning, at $50.85 in a 52-week range of $29.51 to $55.99.