New York Times Shares Surge as It Breaks Free From an Industry Problem

So far this year, share price increases among newspaper companies have been related more to mergers and acquisitions than financial performance. New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) has broken that pattern, based on signs its digital revenue may actually match or overcome drops in traditional print revenue and wobbly online display advertising revenue. These trends have separated it from the rest of the industry for the time being.

The flash of optimism started with a run up in paid subscriptions after the election. Donald Trump believed that the newspaper’s election coverage had cost it significant cancellations. However, it had a net increase in 132,000 paid subscribers in the three weeks after the election. This growth rate was 10 times faster than in the same period the year before, according to the New York Times. Its share price has risen 20% in the past month to a 52-week high of $14.20, likely driven by the news.

It would be easy for investors to write off the 132,000 as a reaction on the election. However, New York Times CEO Mark Thompson said the trend would continue for a long period. Ken Doctor wrote at the NiemanLab website that Thompson told the UBS Global Media Conference the company eventually could have 10 million paid digital subscribers. He did not offer any real support for the number.

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Even with the recent jump in sign-ups, the current count could not be over 2 million. What makes the forecast even possible is the company’s past success with digital subscriptions. No other U.S. local paper can come close to its base of total number or what it charges subscribers. The New York Times is probably the only paper with a large number of overseas readers, except, perhaps, Jeff Bezos’s Washington Post. It also has an impressive number of paid subscribers well outside New York City.

Optimism about the New York Times is certainly not based on third-quarter results, nor those expected for the fourth quarter. Revenue last quarter dropped 1% to $364 million. Circulation revenue rose 7% to $217 million. What is hopeful about the addition of the 132,000 net new customers is that the trend ought to drive up subscription revenue more rapidly than management expected. It will have to. The brutal erosion of print advertising across much of the industry hit the New York Times particularly hard last quarter. The company reported:

Third-quarter print advertising revenue decreased 18.5 percent while digital advertising revenue increased 21.4 percent. Digital advertising revenue was $44.4 million, or 35.5 percent of total Company advertising revenues, compared with $36.5 million, or 27.0 percent, in the third quarter of 2015. The decrease in print advertising revenues resulted primarily from a decline in display advertising. The increase in digital advertising revenues primarily reflected increases in revenue from our mobile platform, our programmatic buying channels and branded content, partially offset by a decrease in traditional website display advertising

When the New York Times offered fourth-quarter guidance, it could not have forecast the post-election subscription improvement.

To boost its financial fortunes, the paper still has a major industry-wide strategy to manage the bottom line. It will continue to cut costs, including people. With 10 million digital subscribers, maybe the need to cut staff will change. Either way, the news has impressed Wall Street.

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