“Avatar: The Way of Water” was supposed to be a sure thing for Disney. The 2009 movie “Avatar” brought in $2.9 billion. According to Barron’s, the new version brought in $135 million, which was below expectations. Overseas, the film’s ticket sales were $310 million. The movie may lose money. The underperformance serves Disney’s new CEO Bob Iger his first piece of really bad news.
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Disney’s early regret may have been what it cost to make the film, which was about $350 million. The recent costs of making blockbuster films have made them riskier financially.
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Disney could count on movie success before the pandemic as a key driver of both revenue and profits. Disney’s box office market share over the past 10 years was extraordinary, averaging about 12%. That figure was even higher from 2016 to 2019. The success of this segment, along with theme parks, was Disney’s earnings engine.
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Disney needs to make up for the disaster of its streaming business financially. It lost $1.5 billion in the most recently reported quarter. Because its streaming subscriber growth has slowed, and its underpriced products like Disney+, it may take years to repair this Disney division, if it is repaired completely.
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Disney finds its streaming business looks like the movie business. Subscriber market share is as critical as ticket sales. Disney has to contend with streaming giants Netflix and Amazon. A dozen other smaller media companies also have staked their financial figures on doing well in the segment. Lurking in the wings, Apple TV+ is funded by Apple’s deep balance sheet and the fact it can offer its service to the billion-plus people who own iPhones, iPads and Macs.
Theme parks will continue to provide Disney with a solid foundation for its earnings. Movies and streaming may not.