The implementation of core fascist policies under Donald Trump has begun, and the widespread and targeted deportation of American undesirables is underway. However, no matter what your personal political and moral positions on the issue of mass deportation are, it’s still going to cost a lot of money. But how much, exactly?
The estimates for the cost of mass deportation vary wildly based on political affiliation and background, but most reasonable experts agree it isn’t going to be cheap or risk-free, and early results of the deportation plan are showing it’s going to be an expensive initiative that will last for years. Additionally, economists and human rights groups estimate that the negative economic impact of mass deportation can permanently damage the American economy for generations. Here are the numbers.
Background on Mass Deportations
An American racist holding a sign.
There are around 13 million undocumented/illegal migrants in the United States or around 4% of the entire population of the country. Most of these people have never committed a crime, and in fact, commit crimes at a much lower rate than American citizens.
The U.S. government regularly conducts immigration enforcement and deportation which reached a peak during the Obama administration, and in order to return to that level of enforcement, the government would have to more than quadruple the amount of deportations it currently conducts, which would not be enough to completely remove the migrant population during a single presidential term. This is due to a few issues.
First, immigration violations are not criminal violations. This means that ICE agents cannot get a warrant to enter a home and detain and deport anyone. A judge can’t sign a warrant for any ICE agent because a warrant requires that the office has probable cause for a crime having been committed. Since crossing the border without documentation isn’t a crime, no judge can sign a warrant for this reason. As a result, ICE agents have to resort to lying to people about their rights, hiding in front of their homes until they leave, or other tactics to grab people.
Second, the U.S. immigration system isn’t set up to handle the volume of people that Trump and his supporters want to deport. This includes the number of ICE agents, holding and detention facilities, judges, clerks, lawyers, medical and educational facilities for families and children that are detained, and even airplanes and other vehicles to get them to their final destination. This does not include the recent trouble that Trump has had with countries refusing to accept deportation flights because Trump has resorted to using military aircraft which have deprived the people onboard of basic human rights and often have left the plane showing signs of inhumane treatment and even abuse.
All this, of course, deals with the actual implementation plan which was based on misinformation and lies from the beginning. Trump told the country that mass deportations would start with the criminals, which was a lie. As the deportations have already begun, ICE has detained and currently holds legal immigrants, American citizens, and Native Americans in custody for deportation. He also told the country that DREAMERs would be an exception to the mass deportations. Recent evidence of ICE activity shows that this was also a lie.
The Cost of Mass Deportation
A human holding up signs.
Reasonable estimates for the total cost of mass deportations vary, but the most common estimate is between $162 billion and $315 billion per year. For context, $162 billion is almost as much as the federal government spent on all its agencies in 2024.
Breaking down the more conservative estimate yields the following numbers for annual costs.
- Arrests: $7 billion
- Detention: $66 billion
- Legal processing: $12.6 billion
- Removal: $2 billion
The cost of arrests includes existing ICE agents and more than doubling the number of ICE agents in order to handle the number of arrests.
Currently, it costs $200 per day to hold someone between arrest and deportation. That cost will skyrocket as the number of facilities needed will increase and the number of people needed to process and take care of these people will also increase. Legal processing includes the cost of existing judges, lawyers, clerks, assistants, secretaries, and other personnel, and the cost of hiring new ones. It costs around $2,500 per court case for each migrant.
Removal includes the cost of planes, busses, and other transportation services to get the migrants to wherever the government decides to send them.
The entire process of removing all migrants (illegal or legal) from the United States is estimated to take around 11 years.
It is important to remember, of course, that much of the infrastructure and services needed throughout this process is provided by private contractors. Experts agree that these companies will increase their prices as demand rises and resources become limited. This will almost definitely send the total cost of mass deportation into the stratosphere.
The Other Costs of Mass Deportation
An Arizona prison.
What these estimates don’t account for, however, is the enormous hit the American economy will suffer as a result. A brief overview of the reasons why includes the following:
First, American companies love taking advantage of illegal immigrants who are desperate to work and are willing to do any job to pay their bills. Companies exploit this need by paying them below the minimum wage and not paying any payroll taxes, overtime, bonuses, or other employee benefits. Around eight million jobs in the country depend on the work produced by illegal immigrants (this is beyond the jobs worked by the migrants themselves, who make up around 5% of the entire workforce of the United States).
Second, the money earned by illegal immigrants is almost always spent immediately, since they are usually unable to invest or open a bank account. This stimulates local economies far faster and more thoroughly than through the earnings of American citizens who save and invest their money which only benefits the wealthy and corporate ruling class.
Third, the tax revenues generated by illegal and legal immigrants far exceed the costs of the benefits they use, and around six million illegal immigrants file their taxes every year, including income taxes. Additionally, expert analysis has shown that up to 75% of all illegal immigrants pay local, state, and federal taxes on their income and contribute around $7 billion each year to the Social Security program. In essence, illegal immigrants are subsidizing the retirement of older Americans.
In Texas alone, the Texas government estimated that illegal immigrants in Texas added around $18 billion to the GDP of the state and $1.5 billion in total revenue while only costing the state less than $1.16 billion in services provided.
Fourth, because American businesses employ millions of illegal migrants, and the cost of their labor is considerably lower than legal labor, the companies are able to charge less for their products. This is especially true in the agricultural, construction, and restaurant industries which disproportionately benefit from illegal labor.
The overall impact of mass deportations will be higher prices of food, homes, and other consumer goods, a budget shortfall of government revenue and benefit programs, and a drop in economic productivity. This does not include the cost to your morality and humanity.
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