Evidence of Huge Holiday Sales

Gallup data confirms what Comscore and National Retail Federation research have already hinted. Holiday sales in 2011 may rise to levels that were hardly dreamed of just months ago. This will encourage economists to forecast higher GDP, and perhaps a rapidly improving economy, for next year.

In its latest report:

Gallup’s final update on expected holiday spending indicates 2011 will be a stronger year than 2010. Currently, Americans estimate they will spend $756 on gifts this year, up from $686 in December 2010. This reinforces the finding from November, which also showed higher estimates for 2011 than for 2010. The initial October estimate suggested spending would be similar to last year.

It is still a puzzle.  Consumer debt was supposed to continue to saddle American consumers. Fears of loss of home equity as the real estate market continues to fall were supposed to spread more worry about underwater mortgages. Unemployment has not improved enough to show an economy that has begun to add jobs at rapid rates. Nonetheless, Americans may set a holiday spending record, at least in rising sectors like e-commerce.

Economists are left to guess what the shopping spree means for the fourth quarter and next year. Consumer expenditures are such a large part of GDP that the final period of the year could show a 3% or better improvement.

However, next year is another matter. Congress has not approved tax cuts, and payroll payments may rise to 6.2%. Unemployment benefits for 1.7 million Americans could disappear completely at the start of January. That figure could rise to 6 million by the end of 2012. And Americans may accumulate unsustainable debt loads as they rush to stores and malls.

The economy has improved for the time being. That trend could change as quickly as its came.

Methodology: Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 15 to 18, 2011, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

Douglas A. McIntyre