One might point to events in Ukraine for last Friday’s dive in J.C. Penney shares. Both the S&P 500 and the DJIA posted losses that day and J.C. Penney may just have gotten caught in the downturn.
But it would be a lot easier to get excited about this jump if it did not represent 90% of J.C. Penney’s share price gain for the year-to-date. And looking back to August 6, we find that virtually 100% of the stock’s year-to-date gain has come in the past two weeks.
Is it irrational exuberance or is something really different at J.C. Penney? Most likely a little of both. The company’s same-store sales rose 6% in the quarter, and even though that was from a very low comparison point, up is still up, and 6% is nothing to sneeze at. The company’s gross margins rose 640 basis points in the second quarter, as well as it got back to selling more of its higher margin private label merchandise at promotional rather than clearance prices.
But to justify a 10% jump in J.C. Penney’s share price in just one and a half trading sessions we have to add in some exuberance. The stock is already trading higher than the consensus price target of $9.58 from 19 analysts. With back-to-school shopping in full swing now, investors are likely expecting J.C. Penney to build on its decent second quarter. That’s certainly possible, but it’s not a sure thing. And this is J.C. Penney, not some small pharmaceutical company that just got a bit of good news from a regulatory agency.
The stock traded up more than 5% in the noon hour Tuesday, at $10.35 in a 52-week range of $4.90 to $14.65. It is worth noting that the 52-week high will roll off the chart early next month, and by the end of September today’s price could well be the new 52-week high.
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