FedEx Buybacks Lift Earnings

For the full year, FedEx reported EPS of $6.75 on revenues of $45.6 billion, compared with $6.23 in EPS and revenues of $44.29 billion in the prior year. The consensus analysts’ estimate called for EPS of $6.67 on revenues of $45.4 billion.

The company’s forecast for its 2015 fiscal year projects EPS of $8.50 to $9.00 and capital spending of $4.2 billion, primarily for new airplanes and expansion of the FedEx Ground network. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $8.76 and revenues of $47.57 billion. The outlook assumes no net year-over-year fuel impact and continued moderate global economic growth.

The company’s CFO said:

Fiscal 2014 was a good year for FedEx and we expect fiscal 2015 to be even better. With continued modest economic improvement, our results in fiscal 2015 should benefit from base performance improvement and ongoing execution of our profit improvement initiatives at FedEx Express, continued profitable growth at FedEx Ground and FedEx Freight, and our share repurchase program.

FedEx repurchased 9.9 million shares of stock during the quarter, bringing the buyback total for the fiscal year to 36.8 million shares. The company said that share repurchases added $0.12 to diluted EPS in the fourth quarter.

Competitor United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is not scheduled to release second-quarter earnings until the end of July. The consensus estimates on UPS call for EPS of $1.24 on revenues of $14.112 billion. Both UPS and FedEx have announced that they will begin calculating shipping charges on a “dimensional weight” basis beginning around January 1, 2015. Under this pricing scheme, shippers pay more for larger packages, regardless of how much the package weighs.

Without the effect of the share buybacks, FedEx doesn’t beat the consensus EPS estimate. And the rosy outlook for 2015 earnings is based on stable fuel costs and moderate economic growth, neither of which is a given. The package FedEx delivered today is shiny, but what’s inside could be very different.

Shares of FedEx were up about 4.3% in premarket trading to $146.30, above the 52-week range of $94.60 to $144.99. The consensus price target from Thomson Reuters was around $154.60 before the results were announced.

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