FedEx Chops Forecast as Earnings Struggle With Weather, Fuel Costs

The company forecast fourth-quarter EPS of $2.25 to $2.50 and lowered its EPS forecast for the full year to a range of $6.55 to $6.80. At the end of the company’s second quarter FedEx forecast earnings growth of 8% to 14% for the full year, which worked out to a range of about $6.73 to $7.10. The consensus estimates call for fourth-quarter EPS of $2.33 and full-year EPS of $6.90.

The company’s CFO said:

While severe winter weather often affects our third-quarter results, the impact from multiple severe storms and frigid temperatures was significantly more pronounced this year and we are reducing our full-year earnings per share guidance as a result of the weather impact. The $1.6 billion profit improvement plan at FedEx Express remains on track despite the near-term impact of weather. Our accelerated stock repurchase program initiated in January reflects our confidence in achieving our financial goals.

In January, FedEx announced an accelerated share buyback program to repurchase $2 billion of its common stock. Repurchases had a “minimal positive impact” on quarterly earnings.

The nasty winter weather cost FedEx’s express segment an estimated $70 million in operating income. Rising fuel costs also weighed on the company’s third-quarter results. For some reason FedEx did not raise its fuel surcharges in any of its segments to offset those rising costs.

Competitor United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is not scheduled to release first-quarter earnings until the end of April. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $1.12 on revenues of $13.92 billion. UPS currently has forward multiple of 16.4, compared with FedEx’s multiple of 15.55. At Tuesday night’s closing prices, the implied gain for FedEx stock based on a consensus price target of around $154.00 is 11.1%. The potential upside for UPS stock based on its price target of around $108.70 and Tuesday’s closing price of $97.41 is 11.6%. Not much difference here.

Shares of FedEx were down about 1.1% in premarket trading, at $137.00 in a 52-week range of $90.61 to $144.39.