FedEx Earnings Sag on Lower per Package Revenue

FedEx reaffirmed its 2015 outlook calling for EPS of $8.50 to $9.00 and capital spending of $4.2 billion, which the company said at the end of its 2014 fourth quarter was destined primarily to acquire new airplanes and to expand the FedEx Ground network. The outlook assumes a “modest” net benefit year-over-year from lower fuel costs and continued moderate global economic growth. The consensus estimates for the 2015 call for EPS of $9.12 on revenues of $47.9 billion.

The company’s CEO said:

FedEx posted strong results and a higher operating margin in the second quarter, with continued growth in volumes and base yields in each of our transportation segments.

The company said that share repurchases added $0.16 to diluted EPS in the second quarter.

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Jet fuel costs fell from $1.12 billion in the first quarter to $1.05 billion in the second quarter, even though the company used nearly 5,000 gallons more fuel in the second quarter. The cost per gallon fell from $3.078 in the first quarter to $2.832 in the second, the lowest per gallon cost in at least three and a half years.

Revenue yield per package fell sequentially from $21.46 to $20.97, and higher package volume apparently did not boost revenues as much as analysts expected.

Both FedEx and competitor United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) are set to begin calculating shipping charges on a “dimensional weight” basis beginning around January 1, 2015. Under this pricing scheme, shippers pay more for larger packages regardless of how much the package weighs. The change is not coming a moment too soon it appears. U.S. revenue per freight pound fell from $1.24 in the first fiscal quarter to $1.16, and companywide revenue per pound fell sequentially from $1.48 to $1.42, its level in the second quarter of the prior fiscal year. Dimensional weight pricing and even lower fuel costs should provide a nice boost for the current quarter’s revenues.

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Because both EPS and revenues missed consensus estimates Wednesday morning, share prices are in for a take-down Wednesday. Shares were down about 4.6% in premarket trading, at $166.25 in a 52-week range of $128.17 to $183.51. The consensus price target from Thomson Reuters was around $163.60 before results were announced.