In a recent Cowen research report, well-respected airlines analyst Helane Becker and her team continue to believe valuations for the airlines remain very compelling. They also point out that if valuations don’t improve and fundamentals remain pretty much the same, they expect the airlines to aggressively repurchase shares. That would be extremely bullish as well. The Cowen report contains five stocks that are rated Outperform, but we focus on three with perhaps the best potential upside.
Southwest Airlines
This company continues to expand routes and remains a low-cost leader. It is also the top pick at Cowen. Southwest Airlines Inc. (NYSE: LUV) continues to increase the footprint and brand awareness all over the country. With the domestic market showing reasonably good strength, and the pricing environment looking very solid for the rest of 2015, revenues should stay strong and continue to grow. Jet fuel prices, which still remain much lower than in past years, is almost 30% of Southwest’s total costs and have been a key for improving revenues and earnings. With almost no international business at this time, currency headwinds are not an issue for the airline.
CEO Gary Kelly recently said when interviewed earlier this year “Our available seat-mile growth will be a little bit more than our seat growth, but it will be around 7 percent for this year; and likewise we will manage aggressively to the low end of that range for next year. Much of the growth in 2016 is simply carryover from 2015.” This has been a concern for some investors and probably relieves some anxiety of overcapacity.
Southwest shareholders are paid a 0.8% dividend. The Cowen price target for the stock is $50, and the Thomson/First Call consensus target is slightly higher at $51.07. The stock closed most recently at $37.45.
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Alaska Air
This company is the second top pick at Cowen, and it broke out nicely in July and looks poised to trade even higher. Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) is the parent company of Alaska Airlines, and it reported impressive traffic data buoyed by strong demand. The company serves more than 100 cities through an expansive network in Alaska, the Lower 48 states, Hawaii, Canada and Mexico. Despite recent challenges by other carriers for superiority in the Northwest, the company has strong customer loyalty, which has contributed to outstanding earnings and revenue growth.
The carrier recently signed a deal with Icelandair to make their frequent flier programs available to each other’s customers. That includes reservations, one-stop check-in, baggage checked to its final destination and the ability to earn points on the airlines’ respective flights.
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Alaska Air investors are paid a 1% dividend. The Cowen price target is $90, and the consensus target is at $89.29. Shares closed Monday at $78.11.
Spirit Airlines
The company is an ultra-low-cost carrier that sold off big from the spring time highs and is offering investors the best entry point in a year. Spirit Airlines Inc. (NASDAQ: SAVE) was named by Air Transport World as the Value Airline of the Year at the 41st Annual Industry Achievement Awards ceremony earlier this year. The carrier’s super-low prices, which are way below industry standard, allow customers to pay up to choose additional amenities.
Spirit has seen a 40% growth in customer satisfaction, according to internal surveys. This growth has also led to Spirit being included in the Department of Transportation monthly Air Travel Consumer Report beginning this year. While the absolutely no-frills airline is not for everyone, it has a loyal customer following, which continues to grow.
The Cowen price target is $60, and the consensus target is much higher at $75.60. The stock closed Monday at $47.29.
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While nothing is ever guaranteed on Wall Street, the possibility for these top companies to all produce outstanding third-quarter results is very good, especially with two of the months of the quarter at the height of the busy summer vacation travel time. While late August and September have been difficult for investors, the fourth quarter could provide solid upside.
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