The self-driving car is the wave of the future for the world’s largest car companies. It is the holy grail that will get millions of buyers to purchase vehicles that require no driver at all. The race has car companies investing billions of dollars in the technology. Leading the way are Tesla, Alphabet’s Waymo, and several new Chinese companies. One leader of the global car industry says they will have a very, very long wait. Money spent on technology today will not yield a return for years, even if then.
David Li, co-founder of Shanghai-based lidar maker Hesai, should know what will happen to the sector. Lidar (light detection and ranging) uses lasers to create 3D images, allowing cars to collect data about their surrounding environment. His company has a huge stake in the industry. He commented to the Financial Times, “Close to one million people lose their lives every year to car accidents. If a technology company builds a vehicle that kills one person every year, that’s one-millionth of the difference, but it will have trouble surviving.” In other words, people are used to deaths or injuries when cars have drivers. When a machine makes a mistake, it means the software is faulty. He also assumes the same reasoning will apply to regulators.
On the Road
Li’s comments come at a time when Chinese companies, like China tech giant Baidu, say they are close to a fully self-driving system. In the United States, the leaders are Tesla and Waymo. The two U.S. companies are running tests around America. The purpose is to convince regulators and drivers that these systems are much safer than others operated by humans.
The drawback is that U.S. drivers read about a small number of crashes. A Waymo car was recently involved in a serious accident in Arizona. It appears the driver of the other vehicle was at fault, and one person was killed. The accident will be the news for days. The millions of miles the Waymo-powered car drove without an incident will not.
Teslas have had several severe accidents with the company’s older “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla has made clear that people need to keep their eyes on the road while using it. That fact is forgotten when Tesla talks about a new and much more successful version.
The driver is not the only wall that has to be climbed for self-driving cars to be a complete success. Most permits for use of the technology are issued by cities and states. There is no federal system, so self-driving car companies need to get a large number of approvals.
Li’s theory will make those approvals hard to come by.
If Li is right, the success of self-driving cars may take much longer than many industry observers think.
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