Based on data from the Forbes 2000 list of the world’s biggest public companies, SAIC Motor had revenue of $99 billion last year. That is very close to the total sales figures for BMW and Nissan. SAIC Motor already has strong partnerships with manufacturers outside China, particularly through joint ventures with GM and Volkswagen, which are critical to the success of the U.S. and European based companies.
SAIC Motor cannot grow into a true global competitor to VW, Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) or GM without annual units sales in the United States and Europe that run into the millions. Fiat Chrysler already has those sales, and the brands, manufacturing facilities, distribution networks and R&D. Fiat is a dominant brand in Europe, just as Chrysler and its Jeep division are in the United States. Given how long it takes, and how virtually impossible it is, to create a huge global car company, a buyout of Fiat Chrysler is the only realistic opportunity SAIC Motor has to build one overnight. One advantage SAIC has as it expands is that it has one controlling shareholder — the Chinese government. It does not have to battle with large groups of outside owners if it wants to make a large strategic decision, which is what a buyout of Fiat Chrysler would be.
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Fiat Chrysler is likely worth between $25 billion and $30 billion in a buyout. In this day and age, that is not a remarkably high sum for a large M&A transaction, particularly one supported by the government of the world’s second largest economy and by a company hungry to expand beyond its home market.
SAIC Motor is the buyer Chrysler wants, and Chrysler is SAIC’s best means to reach new markets.
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