Live: Will Opendoor Beat Earnings Tonight?

Opendoor’s conference call is starting now.

Shares are still up 14%. We’ve outlined the reasons for the move in earlier updates, but the 46% growth in purchases and margin improvements loom large.

Prediction markets collapsed from 37.5% beat probability on February 15 to just 0.6% today as traders anticipated another earnings miss. The actual Q4 results delivered exactly that: EPS of -$1.26 versus -$0.11 consensus, marking a massive 1,045% miss.

Yet shares surged 10%+ after hours. Markets priced in the loss but weren’t prepared for the operational pivot. Management’s 46% sequential growth in home purchases signals the new pricing algorithms are working, while October 2025 cohorts tracking to record contribution margins validates unit economics.

The real surprise: revenue of $746 million crushed the $594 million estimate by 26%, far exceeding management’s own guidance for a 35% sequential decline. Traders betting on a miss focused on the wrong metric entirely.

Opendoor issued Q1 2026 guidance signaling improving fundamentals despite near-term revenue pressure. Management expects revenue to decline approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter from Q4’s $746 million, but the margin trajectory tells a more compelling story.

The company projects an adjusted EBITDA loss in the low to mid $30 million range for Q1, a meaningful improvement from Q4’s loss. Management stated that contribution margin bottomed in September and has improved every month since, with Q1 exit rates expected to reach the highest level since Q2 2024.

The 46% sequential growth in home purchases demonstrates new pricing algorithms are driving volume without sacrificing unit economics. CEO Kaz Nejatian’s October 2025 cohort is tracking to deliver the strongest contribution margins of any October cohort in company history, validating the operational overhaul.

Shares climbed on the margin improvement narrative rather than revenue guidance.

Here are some of the quotes from OpenDoor’s release:

“Last quarter, we outlined a four-step plan to transform Opendoor: reach breakeven Adjusted Net Income by the end of 2026 on a 12-month go-forward basis, drive positive unit economics while increasing transaction velocity, transition to direct-to-consumer relationships, and expand our product suite. This quarter demonstrates we are executing on that plan,” said Kaz Nejatian, CEO of Opendoor. “These results reflect structural improvements in how we operate with more accurate pricing, faster inventory turns, and disciplined selection.

“The evidence of progress is clear. We increased our homes purchased by 46% quarter-over-quarter, significantly reduced our capital intensity by expanding Cash Plus such that it is now 35% of our weekly volume, and we reduced average days in possession of our inventory by 23%.

“Most significantly, our October 2025 acquisition cohort—both the first full month under the Opendoor 2.0 model and the first with mature sell-through data—is tracking to deliver the strongest contribution margins of any October cohort in Company history. And these homes are selling at more than twice the velocity of the October 2024 cohort, with over 50% already sold or under resale contract. While our newer cohorts are still early in their sell-through, we like what we see, and our Q1 2026 contribution margin guide post reflects our confidence in the trajectory for the portfolio.”

That 46% number will be carefully studied and is likely one of the biggest drivers of Opendoor’s surge after hours. Shares are now up 10.3%.

Here’s the guidance Opendoor issued:

• Q1 2026 Financial Outlook:
  • Acquisitions: You can track our acquisition contracts on accountable.opendoor.com¹.
  • Revenue: We expect a decrease of approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter.
  • Contribution Margin²: Our contribution margin bottomed out in September and has been improving every month since. We expect to exit Q1 2026 with the highest contribution margin we’ve posted since Q2 2024.
  • Adjusted EBITDA²: We expect Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss in the low to mid $30 millions.

That guidance is significantly below Wall Street’s expectations, but investors don’t seem to mind. Shares are now up 11%.

Opendoor’s earnings just hit newswires, here are the most important numbers:

• Revenue: $746 million 
• EPS: -$1.26

As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street was expecting:

• Revenue: $594.02 million 
• EPS:-$0.11 

Share are initially up 7% as investors are focusing on the revenue beat initially. 

Prediction markets show beat probability fell to 28% as of this afternoon, down from 37.5% on February 15. The steady erosion reflects mounting skepticism about Q4 results after management guided to a 35% sequential revenue decline due to low inventory.

Bull Case

• Q3 revenue beat estimates and $962 million cash provides runway for the AI pivot
• Management targets 35%+ acquisition growth from new pricing tools
• Breakeven adjusted net income by end of 2026 creates profitability visibility

Bear Case

• Net losses widened to $90 million in Q3 from $78 million prior year
• Revenue down 33.55% year-over-year with another steep drop expected
• Housing starts declined 5.8% year-over-year, pressuring transaction volume

We expect Opendoor earnings to hit newswires at about 4:05 p.m. ET. If you see movement before then, it could just be noise. As a reminder, we’ll begin posting news and analysis once earnings are released.

Simply stay on this page and new updates will post automatically. 

The odds of Opendoor beating earnings tonight slipped as low as 14% at 11 a.m. this morning, but have rebounded to 32% currently.

Opendoor shares are up 4% today and have been steadily rising throughout the trading day.