Muddy Waters Shorted SoFi — Here’s What Keefe Bruyette Says Retail Investors Are Missing

Muddy Waters Research published a short report on SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI | SOFI Price Prediction) on March 17, 2026, sending a stock already down 33.65% year-to-date into further turbulence. The firm called SoFi a “financial engineering treadmill,” alleging “GE Capital-style loan marks and Enron-esque off-balance-sheet structures” and claiming a material misstatement of at least $312 million in unrecorded debt. SoFi fired back the same evening, calling the report “misleading” and “inaccurate,” citing a “fundamental lack of understanding” of its financials, and signaling it would explore legal action.

For retail investors caught between a credible short-seller and a defensive management team, the noise can obscure what the underlying numbers actually show. Keefe Bruyette analysts, who cover SoFi closely, maintain a constructive view that points to several metrics the market may be underweighting.

What the Bulls Point To

SoFi’s Q4 2025 results were objectively strong on nearly every operational measure. The company posted its first-ever billion-dollar quarter, with revenue of $1.025 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.13, beating the $0.11 consensus. The Financial Services segment grew revenue 78% year-over-year to $456.7 million, with contribution profit doubling to $230.8 million. Fee-based revenue surged 53% year-over-year to a record $443 million, a metric that matters because it signals recurring, non-credit-risk revenue diversification.

Member growth is the other number bulls lean on. SoFi added a record 1.027 million members in Q4 alone, bringing the total to 13.7 million, up 35% year-over-year. Critically, 40% of new products were opened by existing members, a cross-sell rate that validates the one-stop-shop thesis Muddy Waters dismisses.

Management’s 2026 guidance calls for adjusted net revenue of approximately $4.655 billion and adjusted EPS of approximately $0.60, implying a forward P/E near 30x at current prices. The medium-term target of 38% to 42% compounded annual EPS growth through 2028 is the figure analysts say retail investors often miss when reacting to short reports.

The Signals Worth Watching

CEO Anthony Noto has purchased shares in the open market three times recently, including 28,900 shares on March 17 at an average of $17.32, the same day the Muddy Waters report dropped. His total holdings now stand at 11,704,352 shares. That kind of conviction is difficult to ignore.

The risks are real, however. The personal loan charge-off rate ticked up to 2.80% from 2.60% sequentially, and Technology Platform accounts fell 23% year-over-year as a large client transitioned off. The analyst consensus sits at 11 Hold ratings against 6 Buys and 5 Sells, with an average 12-month price target of $26.50. The Muddy Waters allegations deserve scrutiny, but so does the operational trajectory underneath them.