Record Bookings Cannot Hide Royal Caribbean’s Growing Fuel Problem

Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL | RCL Price Prediction), the popular cruise line, is carrying real momentum into 2026, but a viral r/wallstreetbets post is crystallizing a risk bulls have been glossing over: oil is approaching $100 a barrel, and Royal Caribbean just committed to spending roughly $5 billion in capital expenditures this year alone. Shares are down 15% over the past month, trading around $267, even as the company guides for $18 in adjusted EPS for 2026.

The good news is that the bull case is real, as two-thirds of 2026 capacity is already booked at record rates, the company is coming off a full-year 2025 net income of $4.27 billion, up 31% year-over-year, and CEO Jason Liberty has described WAVE season as “the highest seven booking weeks in company history.” The incoming Legend of the Seas, expected in Q2 2026, adds fresh capacity to an already-full fleet. The bear case, increasingly loud online, is fuel.

WTI at $93 and Climbing

WTI crude hit a 12-month high of $97.31 on March 13, before pulling back to $92.46 as of March 16. That is a 46% surge in a single month, putting oil within striking distance of the widely watched $ 100-a-barrel threshold, a level that has historically squeezed cruise operators hard. 

r/WallStreetBets Smells Blood in the Water

A post titled “The Cruise Industry is going to get BURIED by the conflict in the Middle East 10k Puts” accumulated over 800 upvotes with a 96% upvote ratio in under 24 hours, driving RCL’s Reddit sentiment score to 8 out of 100, very bearish.

The Cruise Industry is going to get BURIED by the conflict in the Middle East 10k Puts
by u/Electrical_Trash_992 in wallstreetbets

By and large, “In 2022, total fuel expenses for cruises doubled, and we’re about to see significantly more disruption in oil than we had in 2022.” The composite sentiment score sits at 36.5 out of 100, medium-confidence bearish, though news sentiment remains relatively constructive at 65 out of 100. The core retail concerns:

• Oil is up 36% year-over-year, and hedge coverage drops to 16% by 2028, leaving future margins exposed
• RCL completed a debt refinancing in 2025 that replaced 2026 debt with notes maturing in 2033 and 2038, materially reducing near-term maturities.
• Geopolitical disruption, including China itinerary modifications creating a 30 basis point headwind to 2026 guidance, is already showing up in the numbers

Wall Street Hasn’t Turned Yet