Since 2013, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has closed April in the green 9 out of 13 times, giving it a win rate close to 70% and making April one of Bitcoin’s best-performing months historically. BTC’s exceptional April performance has held across different market cycles, often following periods of Q1 underperformance.
April 2026 may not support Bitcoin’s win rate stat because BTC has experienced a rough first quarter. The number 1 crypto by market cap has lost about 23% in value from its January price of $87,500. The decline follows a bearish performance in Q4 2025, marking Bitcoin’s first back-to-back quarterly losses since 2022.
After months of steady losses and weak market sentiment, will Bitcoin match its 69% April performance this year?
Bitcoin’s April Track Record Since 2013
April has often been a strong month for Bitcoin, but while some years deliver impressive performances, others barely move, and a few end in losses. The table below summarizes Bitcoin’s April performances since 2013.
| Year | April Return | Result |
| 2013 | +36.8% | Green |
| 2014 | -5.3% | Red |
| 2015 | -2.5% | Red |
| 2016 | +7.1% | Green |
| 2017 | +6.3% | Green |
| 2018 | +33.5% | Green |
| 2019 | +28.7% | Green |
| 2020 | +34.5% | Green |
| 2021 | +3.3% | Green |
| 2022 | -17.2% | Red |
| 2023 | +2.8% | Green |
| 2024 | -14.7% | Red |
| 2025 | +14.1% | Green |
Over 13 years, Bitcoin has ended April with a positive price nine times, putting its win rate at 69%. Bitcoin’s average return in April currently sits at 10.7%, but this figure is hugely inflated by high gains of over 28% in 2013, 2018, 2019, and 2020. Without these standout years, Bitcoin’s April performance has a 0.7% average return which isn’t as impressive as the overall figure sounds.
Bitcoin’s typical April is modestly green, with a median return of 7.1%. According to CoinGlass, BTC’s best April was in 2013, with a 36.8% surge, while the worst was in 2022, with a 17.2% loss. This difference shows how much Bitcoin’s April performances vary depending on broader market conditions, and understanding this is important when considering how April 2026 could play out.
What Makes April 2026 Different From Every Other April
This April is different because external macroeconomic factors are driving market performance in ways previous Aprils never experienced. The U.S.and Iran conflict has kept oil prices above $100 since early March, and the Federal Reserve raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% in response. Expectations for rate cuts have faded, replaced by projections that rates will stay elevated well into Q2 2026. These are all macro conditions that typically tighten liquidity and limit price appreciation.
At the same time, the usual April tax pressure is still in play. With Bitcoin posting major gains in 2024 and continuing to climb through 2025, many investors are holding taxable profits. As the April 15 deadline approaches, some investors are likely to sell to cover their tax bills, adding further downward pressure.
In prior cycles, tax-season selling and early-month weakness were temporary and largely self-contained. Now, the same pressure is colliding with a hostile macro environment that has not eased.
Even if the typical early-April dip plays out, Bitcoin’s recovery is no longer guaranteed. It will depend on whether the current war ceasefire, oil prices, and Fed policy begin to ease. Until then, this month remains far more structurally constrained than any previous April has been.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for April 2026
Bitcoin is trading around $71,000 after rallying from $68,000 on April 1, but the move came on the back of a ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran. But with the ceasefire looking bleak due to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, can Bitcoin hold these gains and push higher?.
Bullish Prediction: $75,000–$80,000
If the U.S.-Iran ceasefire leads to a real deal and oil prices drop below $90, the pressure affecting the whole market would ease. Bitcoin could finally break above $75,000 on the back of easing macro conditions, and reach as high as $80,000. Progress on the CLARITY Act in late April would also add further momentum.
Base Prediction: $68,000–$76,000
Early-April tax selling could keep Bitcoin under pressure around the $68,000-$72,000 range. Without a clear catalyst, such as the war coming to an end, Bitcoin’s most likely outcome is consolidation. BTC would stay in this range through most of the month, with a modest gain matching the 7.1% median April return, putting it around $76,000 by month end.
Bearish Prediction: $65,000 or Lower
If the Iran ceasefire falls apart, Bitcoin could lose its support near $69,000. Leveraged positions would start getting liquidated, and short-term holders who bought the ceasefire rally would sell. In this scenario, BTC could slide toward $65,000 before finding support. Standard Chartered warned earlier this year that Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 if macro conditions deteriorated further, and a failed ceasefire combined with persistent inflation would bring that scenario closer.
Will Bitcoin Go Up in April 2026?
Bitcoin has closed April with a price gain nine out of thirteen times since 2013, but this April has more working against it than any of those years did. The war ceasefire is what matters most right now. If the ceasefire holds for two weeks as initially agreed, Bitcoin could push past $75,000 before the month ends.
Tax selling ahead of April 15 and uncertainty around the war will keep overriding Bitcoin’s rally attempts. But Bitcoin is already back above $71,000, and the CLARITY Act markup in late April is a key catalyst that could move the market. If BTC holds above $70,000 through the tax window and the war reaches a resolution, then Bitcoin has a real shot at matching its 69% win rate this April.
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