Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is back at the $78,000 price mark five days after last Friday’s rally to the same level. The Bitcoin price rallied over 7% last week but Iran’s swift closure of the Strait of Hormuz after a brief 24 hour opening last weekend caused oil prices to spike again. That rattled the market and BTC dropped below $75,000 but has now bounced back to retest $78K.
The rally this time is different due to two key drivers. Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely on Tuesday evening, and Strategy disclosed a $2.54 billion Bitcoin purchase. As the buying pressure and macro ease combined, that gave Bitcoin enough momentum to break above $75K to test $78K. Will Bitcoin finally scale $80,000 this time?
Why Bitcoin Just Broke $78K After Friday’s Failed Rally
The Bitcoin price hit $78,000 following news that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but the move had no real buyers behind it. BTC’s funding rates had been negative for 46 straight days heading into the weekend.
This means that traders had been paying premium for weeks to bet against BTC, so when Iran reopened the Hormuz, all those short positions got forced out at once. $762 million in crypto liquidations hit within a single session, with shorts outnumbering longs nearly four to one. The move was forced exits, not real buyers, which is why it all unwound when Iran reversed course the next day.
The current Bitcoin rally has real buyers this time around. Strategy bought 34,164 BTC between April 13 and 19 for $2.54 billion at an average price of $74,395 per coin. That’s the company’s third-largest purchase ever and its biggest weekly buy since November 2024. The buys pushed Strategy past BlackRock’s IBIT to become the world’s largest Bitcoin holder with 815,061 BTC total. Strategy paid spot prices for every coin, not leveraged bets, and buying like that doesn’t reverse the way a leveraged short cover does.
Crypto funds also took in $1.4 billion over the week, marking the largest haul since January. And Trump’s ceasefire extension on Tuesday evening removed the April 22 threat that could have triggered another macro selloff.
What Bitcoin Needs to Clear $80K
Back in November, Bitcoin’s flash crash from its $126K peak bottomed at $80K before stabilizing. BTC then crashed through $80K on February 2 and bottomed at $60K four days later on a forced hedge fund liquidation. Since then, every Bitcoin rally attempt has stalled below this zone, including four failed breakouts in the $75-78K band over the past two months.
Above $80K, the next test is the 200-day EMA around $83,000. That’s the line traders are watching as a key level that will tell if Bitcoin’s downtrend is finally over. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed this level in mid-March but retraced right after as it couldn’t hold it. Reclaiming the 200-day EMA would be the clearest sign yet that Bitcoin is on course for a bullish run.
Bitcoin has hit the $75-78K zone four times, but every rally gave back gains before the day ended. If BTC manages to close above $80,000 on a daily chart, it would be the first real signal that an uptrend is on the cards. A weekly close above that level is the stronger signal, and Bitcoin hasn’t managed one since January.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin is at $78,000 with real spot demand behind it, but the next move depends on the $80K resistance breaking or failing again. Here’s our view on where the Bitcoin price could go through the next several weeks.
Bullish Case: BTC Could Reach $85,000-$90,000
Bitcoin could clear $80K on a daily close this week and push through the 200-day EMA at $83,000. Short sellers from the 46-day negative funding streak would get forced out as the breakout confirms. If that happens, BTC could rally to $85,000-$90,000 by the end of May, with $100,000 in reach if the short squeeze accelerates.
Base Case: BTC Consolidates Between $76,000 and $82,000
The FOMC meeting on April 28-29 should hold rates as expected, and the market likely won’t move much either way since that outcome is priced in. The CLARITY Act markup has slipped to May, so there’s no regulatory catalyst before month-end. Bitcoin would likely trade between $76,000 and $82,000, with Strategy’s buying holding the $75K support and $80K capping the upside.
Bearish Case: BTC Pulls Back to $70,000-$72,000
Iran could reject the Islamabad talks or the current blockade could trigger another naval incident, making the ceasefire extension unstable and sending oil prices back toward $100. BTC trades with 85% correlation to the Nasdaq during oil spikes, so retail and ETF flows could pause in such a scenario, even as Strategy keeps buying. We believe the Bitcoin price could pull back to $70,000-$72,000 if that happens.
Can Bitcoin Hit $80K In this Rally?
The current setup favors Bitcoin clearing $80K this time. What separates another fake-out from a genuine breakout comes down to one trigger: there’s $180 million in short positions waiting to get liquidated between $77,000 and $78,000. A clean daily close above $78K will trigger the liquidation and that could push the BTC price toward $80K.
On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold above $77,300, the $71 million in long positions underneath will trigger instead and drag BTC back into the consolidation range it held before this week’s breakout.
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