Blackstone (NYSE:BX | BX Price Prediction) stock is up roughly 2% in early Monday trading after Oppenheimer upgraded shares to Outperform, calling the world’s largest alternative asset manager a “premier franchise at a very attractive valuation.” Shares are trading around $117 as of this morning’s session.
The upgrade arrives after a bruising stretch for Blackstone stock. Shares are down 25% year-to-date, sliding from a starting price of $152.41 at the end of 2025. That kind of pullback in a company with $1.27 trillion in assets under management is exactly the kind of dislocation that prompts a firm like Oppenheimer to step in with a fresh call.
Oppenheimer’s analysts set a price target of $154, describing Blackstone as a “high-quality company that is now relatively cheap on our 2027 earnings estimates.” The implication is clear: the market has been pricing in near-term noise while the underlying business continues compounding at an impressive rate.
What “Dislocation” Actually Means Here
When analysts use the word “dislocation,” they mean the stock price has moved in a direction that doesn’t reflect the business’s actual health. In Blackstone’s case, the numbers tell a compelling story. Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $14.45 billion, up 27% year-over-year, and net income hit $6.05 billion, up 118% year-over-year.
The Q4 2025 earnings report did include an EPS miss, with reported EPS of $1.30 against an estimate of $1.53. Yet that miss was largely driven by a 57% sequential decline in Fee Related Performance Revenues, a timing issue rather than a structural breakdown. Meanwhile, Blackstone’s Q4 inflows reached $71 billion, the highest in over three years.
The broader market volatility context matters here too. The VIX, the market’s so-called fear gauge, peaked at 31.05 on March 27 before pulling back to 19.23 as of April 10. That kind of spike tends to drag down high-beta names like Blackstone indiscriminately, and with a beta of 1.735, Blackstone absorbs market swings more than most financial stocks.
Why Oppenheimer Sees Value in the Franchise
The valuation math supports the upgrade thesis. Blackstone’s forward P/E ratio sits at 18x, well below its trailing P/E of 30x, reflecting the market’s expectation of significant earnings growth ahead. The analyst consensus price target stands at $147.68, with 12 buy or strong buy ratings and zero sell ratings across the coverage universe.
Blackstone’s business model has several durable engines. Perpetual Capital AUM reached $523.6 billion, up 18% year-over-year, providing a recurring revenue base that doesn’t evaporate when markets get choppy. Credit and Insurance AUM grew 18% year-over-year to $443 billion, and the infrastructure strategy delivered 24% appreciation for the full year 2025
New deal activity also signals that Blackstone isn’t standing still. The firm recently filed to launch Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust, targeting a roughly $2 billion IPO focused on data centers in Tier 1 North American markets. It also completed the $18.3 billion acquisition of Hologic alongside TPG and launched a joint aircraft leasing venture with Dubai Aerospace Enterprise targeting roughly $1.6 billion in annual deployment.
The Income Angle and What Comes Next
For income-focused investors, Blackstone’s dividend profile is worth noting. Full-year dividends for 2025 totaled $4.74 per share, up 20% year-over-year, and at the current stock price that translates to a dividend yield of roughly 4%. That’s a meaningful income stream from a company with $1.7 billion in remaining share buyback authorization.
The prediction markets are also leaning constructive. On Polymarket, the crowd assigns a 78% probability that Blackstone beats its next quarterly earnings, with the market expiring April 23. BMO Capital also adjusted its Blackstone stock price target this morning, raising it to $132 from $126 while maintaining an Outperform rating.
Watch for whether today’s momentum holds through the close and whether additional analyst upgrades follow Oppenheimer’s lead. Blackstone’s next earnings report, expected around April 23, will be the real test of whether the “bargain price” thesis gets validated by fresh fundamentals.
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