Blackstone Inc. (NYSE: BX | BX Price Prediction) has had a turbulent 2026, sliding from year-end highs before staging a meaningful recovery. With earnings due in less than a week, this is an important moment to assess where the alternative asset management giant stands.
Our 24/7 Wall St. Price Target: $140.36 With a BUY Recommendation
The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Blackstone is $140.36, representing 9.55% upside from the current price of $128.13. Our recommendation is buy, with a high confidence level (90%) in the model output.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $128.13 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $140.36 |
| Upside | +9.55% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
The model reflects a business unfairly punished by macro volatility. With $1.27 trillion in total AUM and durable compounding engines across credit, infrastructure, and private wealth, the fundamental case remains intact.
A Volatile Year, But Signs of Recovery
Blackstone shares are down 15.93% year-to-date, falling from $152.41 at the end of 2025 to $128.13. The stock bottomed near $107.12 in March 2026 before recovering sharply.
Over the past month, BX has risen 14.4%, and over the past week it has gained 9.61%. The stock’s 52-week range spans $101.73 to $186.25, putting the current price roughly 22% off the high.
Q4 2025 earnings, filed in January, produced mixed results. GAAP EPS came in at $1.30 versus a $1.53 estimate, missing expectations. Revenue of $4.36 billion exceeded estimates of $3.35 billion and full-year revenue rose 27.04% year-over-year to $14.45 billion.
The EPS miss was driven by 57% sequential decline in Fee Related Performance Revenues, a timing issue rather than structural breakdown. Distributable EPS of $1.75 and Q4 inflows of $71 billion (the highest in over three years) told a more constructive story.
The Bull Case: $175 Breakout Ahead
Bulls center on Blackstone’s compounding AUM machine and private wealth opportunity. Perpetual Capital AUM reached $523.6 billion, up 18% year-over-year, providing recurring revenue insulated from market volatility. Credit and Insurance AUM grew 18% year-over-year to $443 billion and infrastructure appreciated 23.5% for the full year 2025.
Oppenheimer recently upgraded BX to Outperform with a price target of $154, calling it a “premier franchise at a very attractive valuation.” BMO Capital raised its target to $132 while maintaining Outperform.
Analyst consensus sits at $144.60, with 12 buy ratings and zero sell ratings. In a bull scenario, BX could reach $175.55 over 12 months, representing 37% total return, driven by accelerating realizations, AUM growth, and re-rating as rate pressure eases.
What Could Go Wrong: Real Estate and Earnings Volatility
The bear case rests on real concerns. Real Estate opportunistic funds declined 0.6% for the full year 2025, a soft spot for the world’s largest real estate investor. Fee Related Performance Revenues are volatile, falling 57% sequentially in Q4. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.29%, near the upper range of its 12-month distribution, which pressures deal economics across Blackstone’s portfolio.
Prediction markets are cautious ahead of April 23 earnings. On Polymarket, the probability of Blackstone beating quarterly earnings dropped from 77.5% on April 13 to 30.5% as of April 17.
In a bear scenario, BX could pull back toward $125.72 over the next year. However, GAAP EPS misses often reflect timing differences in performance fee recognition rather than business deterioration. Full-year net income surged 117.78% year-over-year to $6.05 billion in 2025, a result that supports the underlying business thesis.
The Bottom Line: BUY With Eyes Open
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $140.36 reflects a business trading at a discount to intrinsic compounding power. With $239.4 billion in full-year 2026 inflows, $177 billion in dry powder, and a dividend that grew 20% year-over-year to $4.74 per share, Blackstone offers income and growth at a price that has absorbed significant bad news.
April 23 earnings will be a key test of whether performance fee revenues are stabilizing and AUM growth is continuing. Real estate headwinds and rate movements remain the primary variables to watch.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $140.36 |
| 2027 | $152.00 |
| 2028 | $163.00 |
| 2029 | $171.00 |
| 2030 | $180.44 |
These projections assume Blackstone executes on private wealth expansion, credit and insurance AUM growth, and infrastructure buildout. Upside could result from earlier-than-expected rate cuts, while prolonged high rates or real estate stress represents primary downside risk.
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