Two Aristocrats That Stumbled Off the Pedestal
For decades, AT&T (NYSE: T | T Price Prediction) and 3M (NYSE: MMM) were the kind of stocks retirees built portfolios around. Both raised dividends every year for decades. Both lost their crowns through messy corporate breakups.
AT&T’s media detour ended badly. After buying DirecTV and Time Warner, the company spun WarnerMedia into Warner Bros. Discovery in April 2022 and cut the quarterly dividend from $0.52 to $0.2775, a 46.6% reduction. CEO John Stankey has since refocused AT&T on converged 5G and fiber, closing the Lumen Mass Markets fiber acquisition in February 2026.
3M’s fall was slower and more painful. Mounting liabilities from Combat Arms Earplugs lawsuits and PFAS “forever chemicals” dragged the stock down for years. The April 2024 spin-off of healthcare unit Solventum brought a dividend reset and ended one of the longest aristocrat streaks on record. New CEO William Brown’s 3M eXcellence turnaround has produced four straight EPS beats.
What $1,000 Actually Became
AT&T Total Return
| Horizon | Ending Value | Total Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | $998 | −0.23% | $1,292 (29.20%) |
| 5 Year | $1,477 | 47.65% | $1,694 (69.43%) |
| 10 Year | $1,598 | 59.76% | $3,449 (244.93%) |
Price-adjusted return. Includes the WarnerMedia spin distribution.
3M Total Return
| Horizon | Ending Value | Total Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | $1,079 | 7.85% | $1,292 (29.20%) |
| 5 Year | $1,042 | 4.18% | $1,694 (69.43%) |
| 10 Year | $1,435 | 43.53% | $3,449 (244.93%) |
Price-adjusted return. Includes the Solventum distribution.
Both stocks underperformed the S&P 500 dramatically over a decade. Reinvested dividends would meaningfully improve AT&T’s tally given its long stretch as a high-yielder, but neither comes close to the index. Holding through the 2018 to 2023 grind required patience most investors do not have.
What to Do Today
Putting $1,000 into AT&T today would be the choice for income and stability. The Q1 2026 earnings report — $31.51 billion in revenue and $0.57 adjusted EPS — plus the $45 billion shareholder return commitment through 2028 and a 4.24% yield at an 8 P/E, make this a credible cash-return story. Investors may want to avoid it if rising leverage from the $23 billion EchoStar spectrum deal pushes net debt past management’s comfort zone.
3M looks attractive for investors who trust Brown’s margin expansion, with 2026 guidance of $8.50 to $8.70 adjusted EPS, and PFAS manufacturing finally exited. The residual $10.3 billion PFAS settlement obligations and the risk that Combat Arms tail liabilities turn into fresh charges would be reasons for investors to step away.
The verdict: AT&T’s risk/reward looks tighter and more visible. 3M is the higher-variance bet on an industrial turnaround that is working but not finished. Neither owes long-term holders a comeback, and that is the lesson. Aristocrat status describes the past.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks