Reddit Is Bearish on Ford and the Q4 Numbers Are Hard to Argue With

By David Beren Updated Mar 9, 3:20PM EDT · Published Mar 9, 8:19AM EDT

Quick Read

Ford (F) trades at $12.07, down 10.01% weekly and 7.18% YTD, posted $11.10B Q4 loss on $10.70B Model e charges, guides 2026 Model e loss of $4.0B to $4.5B. Toyota, Hyundai, Honda reported gains.
Ford posted its worst quarterly loss in years driven by EV asset impairments, with Model e division expected to bleed billions through 2029.

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Reddit Is Bearish on Ford and the Q4 Numbers Are Hard to Argue With — © 2003 Getty Images / Getty Images News via Getty Images

The world continues to watch Ford’s (NYSE:F | F Price Prediction) next moves, as it trades at $12.07 as of Monday morning, down 10.3% over the past week and 8.46% year-to-date. Despite five consecutive years of revenue growth and a commercial vehicle business generating real profit, Ford shares have gained just 27.29% over the past five years. Of course, it’s hard to ignore that the market is pricing in a structural problem as Ford’s EV division keeps bleeding, and retail investors on Reddit are skeptical that the turnaround math ever closes.

An infographic titled 'Ford (NYSE: F) Investment & Sentiment Snapshot' with data as of Monday, March 9, 2026. Section 1, 'The Investment: Ford Motor Co. (F)', features a car icon and lists: Current Price: $12.07 with a downward red arrow, 1-Week: -10.01%, YTD: -7.18%, 5-Year: +18.13%, Valuation: Forward P/E 8.26, and Analyst Target: $14.14. Section 2, 'Social Sentiment Score (Reddit)', shows a gauge pointing to '32-38 / 100' in the red 'Bearish' zone, labeled 'Bearish Sentiment', with 'Primary Forum: r/wallstreetbets'. Section 3, 'What is Driving the Score Today', displays three boxes: The first, 'Massive EV Losses & Impairments' with a battery icon, states 'Q4 '25 Net Loss: -$11.10B (driven by $10.70B Model e charges)' and '2026 Guidance: -$4.0B to -$4.5B Model e loss'. The second, 'Record Recalls & Quality Issues' with a wrench and gear icon, notes '2025: 12.9M vehicles recalled' and 'Early 2026: 4.3M more recalled'. The third, 'Declining Sales Volume' with a bar chart icon, reports 'Feb U.S. Sales: -5.5%' and 'Feb EV Volume: -71%'. — This infographic provides a snapshot of Ford’s (NYSE: F) investment metrics and social sentiment as of March 9, 2026, highlighting the factors contributing to its bearish Reddit sentiment score.

The bearish case hardened after Q4 2025 earnings. Ford posted a $11.10 billion GAAP net loss for the quarter, driven by $10.70 billion in Model e asset impairments and EV program cancellations. An adjusted EPS of $0.13 missed the $0.1738 estimate by 320%, even as revenue beat by a wide margin. Free cash flow for the full year came in at $3.51 billion, down 47.87% year-over-year, and the company has guided Model e losses of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion for 2026, with breakeven not expected until 2029.

Reddit’s Verdict on Ford’s Worst Quarter in Years

Retail sentiment sits at 32 to 38 out of 100, firmly bearish, with activity concentrated in r/wallstreetbets. Discussion peaked Sunday evening, then faded through Monday morning. Users are focused on three compounding concerns:

Model e is expected to lose $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion in 2026, with no path to profitability until 2029
Ford recalled a record 12.9 million vehicles in 2025, followed by a 4.3 million vehicle recall in early 2026 affecting F-Series trucks and Lincoln SUVs
February U.S. sales dropped 5.5% overall, with EV volume down 71%, while Toyota, Hyundai, and Honda all reported gains

The r/wallstreetbets post titled “Auto giant Ford reported its worst quarterly earnings in four years” captured the mood directly:

“Auto giant Ford reported its worst quarterly earnings in four years”

Auto giant Ford reported its worst quarterly earnings in four years
by u/unknown in wallstreetbets

Ford Pro’s Margins Are Real, But They Can’t Plug a $4.5B Hole

Ford Pro, the company’s commercial vehicle division, generated over $66 billion in revenue and achieved a double-digit EBIT margin in 2025, and management guided Ford Pro EBIT to $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion for 2026. Paid software subscriptions grew 30% in 2025, adding recurring revenue that strengthens the margin profile. CEO Jim Farley’s full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance of $8.0 billion to $10.0 billion implies real underlying earnings power. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8, compared with an analyst consensus target of $14.14. The problem is that Model e is guided to lose $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion in 2026, while Ford Pro is guided to generate $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion in EBIT. Until that gap closes, the valuation discount stays.

The Novelis aluminum plant recovery is the most immediate variable as Ford expects the mill restart sometime in late Q2 2026, with $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion in temporary Novelis-related costs weighing on first-half results before a normalized EBIT run rate in the second half. If that recovery slips, the $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion free cash flow target for 2026 becomes harder to defend.

About the Author David Beren →

David Beren has been a Flywheel Publishing contributor since 2022. Writing for 24/7 Wall St. since 2023, David loves to write about topics of all shapes and sizes. As a technology expert, David focuses heavily on consumer electronics brands, automobiles, and general technology. He has previously written for LifeWire, formerly About.com. As a part-time freelance writer, David’s “day job” has been working on and leading social media for multiple Fortune 100 brands. David loves the flexibility of this field and its ability to reach customers exactly where they like to spend their time. Additionally, David previously published his own blog, TmoNews.com, which reached 3 million readers in its first year. In addition to freelance and social media work, David loves to spend time with his family and children and relive the glory days of video game consoles by playing any retro game console he can get his hands on.