Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. (NASDAQ:CDRO) just posted its best quarter ever, and CEO Aviv Sher isn’t shy about why: Mexico is on fire, and the World Cup hasn’t even started yet.
“In the fourth quarter of 2025, our net gaming revenue reached €60.7 million, marking the highest quarterly figure in the Company’s history. This increase was mostly driven by Mexico, where our net gaming revenue grew 31% on the back of a 43% increase in our portfolio of active customers in the country. In December, we hit a record of 100,000 active players in the country, positioning us well for the upcoming World Cup this summer.”
That 100,000 active player milestone in Mexico isn’t just a vanity metric. It’s proof that customer acquisition is working at a cost that actually makes sense. “During the quarter, we acquired 89,000 first-time depositors at an average cost-per-acquisition of EUR 166, the lowest level since early 2023 and which remains an attractive level, given the quality of the customers we are bringing onto the platform.” Lower acquisition cost with a growing base is the kind of unit economics story that compounds.
Sher was direct about where the company is putting its chips: “We will continue to invest in Mexico. Going into new markets at the moment before the World Cup, I don’t think it’s wise for us.” Mexico now represents 53% of full-year 2025 net gaming revenue, and the company is doubling down rather than spreading thin.
The elephant in the room is Mexico’s gaming excise tax, which jumped from 30% to 50% effective January 1, 2026. Sher’s response was measured but confident: “In terms of revenues, we don’t see a risk to the revenue generation… Regarding the EBITDA, there will be an EBITDA effect. We see it. It’s not as big as we thought. We are able to mitigate most of it.” CFO Marcus Arildsson added that mitigation is coming through marketing efficiency, supplier renegotiations, and operational improvements.
Two major competitors in Mexico were shut down for regulatory reasons ahead of the World Cup, which Sher acknowledged as a meaningful shift in the competitive landscape. Fewer big-budget rivals and 100,000 loyal players heading into the summer tournament is a setup most operators would take.
Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to €13.8 million from €6.4 million in 2024. For 2026, guidance calls for net gaming revenue of €235 to €245 million and adjusted EBITDA of €15 to €20 million. The Latin American online gaming market is growing at a 24% CAGR with a projected TAM of €4.8 billion by 2029.
Codere is a small company in a fast-growing market, carrying $50 million in cash and no financial debt, with a World Cup arriving in its core market this summer. The tax headwind is real, but Sher’s bet is that the opportunity is bigger than the obstacle.
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