Investors in Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) endured a punishing stretch last fall when aggressive capital-expenditure plans sparked deep concerns about cash burn and execution risk. The stock that had climbed to an all-time high of $141 per share in October, cratered nearly 50% to a recent low below $74 as worries mounted that the AI-cloud upstart was spending too fast in a market suddenly sensitive to over-investment.
Yet a string of operational and commercial victories has steadily parted those clouds. Today’s announcement of a landmark multi-billion-dollar pact with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) not only validates Nebius’s build-out strategy but cements its status as the clear frontrunner among the new generation of specialized AI infrastructure providers known as “neoclouds.”
Capex Fears Once Dominated the Narrative
For months the market fixated on Nebius’s ambitious spending roadmap. The company guided for $16 billion to $20 billion in 2026 capex alone — more than four times 2025 levels — to scale its AI factories and contracted power capacity toward multi-gigawatt targets. Analysts and short sellers warned that such heavy outlays, combined with convertible debt and negative free cash flow figures, could pressure the balance sheet if hyperscaler demand cooled or power-delivery timelines slipped.
The stock’s sharp pullback reflected those legitimate fears, especially after rival CoreWeave’s (NASDAQ:CRWV) own sky-high capex forecast rattled the sector. Yet beneath the noise, Nebius kept delivering: sold-out clusters, growing backlog, and early revenue traction that already pointed to annualized run-rates exceeding $1 billion by the end of 2025.
A Milestone Triggers a $2 Billion Endorsement
The turnaround accelerated in early March when Nebius secured city-council approval to build its first U.S. gigawatt-scale AI factory on 400 acres near Independence, Mo. The 1.2-gigawatt campus, with power delivery slated for the second half of 2026, instantly moved the company from planning to shovel-ready execution. Days later, Nvidia delivered the ultimate vote of confidence: a $2 billion strategic investment via private placement plus a commitment to supply early access to its most advanced accelerators — including the next-generation Rubin platform, Vera CPUs, and BlueField storage systems. The partnership explicitly positions Nebius as a preferred infrastructure layer for hyperscale agentic-AI workloads, giving the Dutch-American player both capital and silicon superiority that competitors will struggle to match.
New $27 Billion Commitment Seals Market Leadership
Today’s news removes any lingering doubt. Nebius signed a new five-year AI-infrastructure supply agreement with Meta Platforms that commits the social-media giant to $12 billion of dedicated capacity across multiple sites beginning in early 2027. Meta has also agreed to purchase up to an additional $15 billion of available capacity over the same period if Nebius does not sell it elsewhere — bringing the total contract value to as much as $27 billion.
The deal expands an existing relationship and provides Nebius with unprecedented revenue visibility while de-risking the very capex that once terrified investors. With Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) already locked in for billions more, Nebius now boasts roughly $22 billion in committed contract value and a clear runway to multi-gigawatt scale.
Key Takeaway
This Meta mega-deal does far more than pad the backlog. It transforms Nebius’s capex from a perceived liability into a high-return growth engine by locking in premium, long-term customers at scale. Hyperscalers like Meta and Microsoft are effectively co-funding the build-out through take-or-pay commitments, dramatically improving cash-flow predictability and lowering the cost of capital.
Combined with the Missouri campus, Nvidia’s silicon partnership, and early access to Rubin-class chips, Nebius now enjoys a structural edge that pure-play neocloud rivals lack. Sold out capacity, secured power, and committed marquee customers — Nebius has moved from “promising upstart” to “must-own infrastructure winner.” For investors who weathered the capex-induced storm, today’s announcement rewards patience and signals the next leg higher.
At current levels, the stock trades at a fraction of the enterprise value implied by its contracted backlog and growth trajectory. With AI demand showing no signs of slowing and Nebius’s full-stack platform uniquely positioned to capture hyperscale spend, Nebius stands out as the premier neocloud stock to buy for anyone seeking leveraged, high-conviction exposure to the AI infrastructure boom.
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