Is April 22 When AT&T Finally Rings Up Growth Again?

AT&T (NYSE:T | T Price Prediction) reports first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, with the call starting at 8:30 AM ET. After a strong finish to 2025 and two major acquisitions closing, this report marks the first real test of whether AT&T’s growth story can hold up under new structural complexity.

A Strong Close, Then a Pullback

AT&T closed out 2025 on a high note. Q4 2025 EPS came in at $0.52, beating the $0.47 estimate by 10.64%, while revenue of $33.466 billion topped the $32.84 billion consensus by 1.92% and grew 3.6% year over year. Full-year adjusted EPS reached $2.12, up 8.7% from $1.95 in 2024.

The stock responded sharply. Shares rose 4.65% on earnings day and climbed 16.37% over the following 30 days. But momentum has since faded. AT&T shares are down 5.62% over the past week and off 1.56% over the past month, closing at $26.46 on April 10. The stock is still up 8.9% year to date, but the recent softness reflects broader market pressure and some investor caution ahead of a structurally transitional quarter.

This is the first quarter AT&T reports under its new segment structure: Advanced Connectivity, Legacy, and Latin America. That alone makes comparisons trickier. Add in the Lumen (NYSE:LUMN)  Mass Markets fiber acquisition — which closed Feb. 2 — and the EchoStar (NASDAQ:SATS) spectrum license deal, and this quarter carries more moving parts than usual.

Consensus Estimates for Q1 2026

Note: Q1 2026 estimates are derived from full-year 2026 guidance. Actual Wall Street consensus figures were not available at time of publication.

New Segments, Acquisitions, and the Fiber Flywheel

The most critical item to watch on April 22 is how management frames the new segment reporting structure and what the Lumen and EchoStar integrations actually cost this quarter. Both deals were described as modestly dilutive to adjusted EPS in 2026 and 2027 before turning accretive in 2028. The first quarter with these assets on the books will set the tone for how much dilution investors should actually expect.

Fiber remains the core growth engine. AT&T ended 2025 with 10.4 million fiber connections, up 11.5% year over year, and posted more than 1 million fiber net adds for the eighth consecutive year. The convergence metric is compelling: 42% of AT&T Fiber households also choose AT&T wireless, a cross-sell dynamic that meaningfully lifts revenue per customer.

The Advanced Connectivity segment deserves close attention. Management guided for Advanced Connectivity service revenue growth of 5%+ in 2026, while the Legacy segment is expected to see revenue decline more than 20% in 2026. The speed of that legacy decline versus the pace of fiber and wireless growth will determine whether the overall top line holds up.

Postpaid phone churn bears watching too. Churn ticked up 13 basis points year over year to 0.98% in Q4 2025. One quarter of elevated churn is manageable. A second consecutive quarter of elevated churn would raise questions about competitive pressure from T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ). Free cash flow guidance of $18 billion or more for full-year 2026 is ambitious given near-term acquisition costs, so any commentary on cadence will matter.

Prediction markets are leaning optimistic. Polymarket traders put the probability of AT&T beating Q1 earnings at 87%. Analyst sentiment backs that view, with 16 buy ratings and 9 holds, and a consensus price target of $30.39 against the current $25.94 price.

The First Chapter of a New AT&T

This quarter opens a new chapter for a restructured company with new assets, new reporting lines, and a three-year commitment to $45 billion or more in total shareholder returns through 2028. CEO John Stankey said AT&T is “accelerating our strategy to deliver improved growth, the best customer experience and enhanced returns for shareholders over the next three years.” April 22 is where investors find out if that acceleration has started on schedule.