The hosts of Morning Brew Daily made a simple argument on a recent episode that the idea of the “Ozempic economy” should be replaced with the “Mounjaro economy” now that Eli Lilly is controlling 60% of the GLP-1 market. Lilly’s Q1 2026 earnings report backs that up.
Lilly’s Dominance, by the Numbers
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $19.80 billion, up 55.5% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.55 versus a $6.79 consensus. Net income of $7.40 billion roughly doubled, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $82.0 billion to $85.0 billion.
The two engines:
- Mounjaro: $8.66 billion in quarterly revenue, up 125%, fueled by international expansion, including the addition to China’s National Reimbursed Drug List.
- Zepbound: $4.16 billion in U.S. revenue, up 80%.
Volume across the business climbed 65%, even as realized prices fell 13% on rebates and access deals. The 8-K filing details the full breakdown.
Foundayo (orforglipron) Is Widening the Lead
The new oral GLP-1 pill, referred to as Foundayo (orforglipron) on the segment, launched fast. There were 20,000 prescriptions in the first 20 days, with 80% of those patients new to GLP-1s. That last figure is the one investors should sit with. Lilly is expanding the category itself, drawing in new patients in addition to market share gains from injectable rivals. With roughly 1 in 10 Americans now on GLP-1 medications, the addressable population is still expanding.
CEO David Ricks framed Foundayo as a tool that “will meaningfully expand the number of people who can benefit from GLP-1s.”
The Ripple Effects: Hershey Adapts
Hershey (NYSE:HSY) offered the cleanest corporate signal that legacy food brands are adjusting. Hershey management has described chocolate as “an emotional category” and “a treat, not a meal,” arguing core confections are insulated. The growth, however, is showing up at the edges of the portfolio: protein bars (a response to GLP-1 muscle loss), Ice Breakers mints, and smaller ice cream portions tied to side-effect management.
Q1 2026 revenue rose 10.65% to $3.10 billion, with North America Salty Snacks up 26.0%. Adjusted EPS of $2.35 beat the $2.05 estimate. Hershey shares are still working through a tougher stretch, down 10.65% over the past month.
What to Watch
Polymarket traders currently price a 23.5% probability that the FDA approves retatrutide in 2026, suggesting Lilly’s near-term growth still rides on Mounjaro, Zepbound, and Orforglipron. With Orforglipron onboarding thousands of new patients weekly, the second-order effects across protein, portions, and snacking categories are only beginning to register.
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