Alphabet Is About to Overtake Nvidia as the World’s Biggest Company

The Number

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG | GOOG Price Prediction) carries a market capitalization of $4.81 trillion, second only to NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) at $5.05 trillion as of May 7, 2026. The Class C shares closed at $395.14 on May 6, 2026, brushing against a 52-week high of $396.38. The figure is the live valuation derived from price and total Alphabet shares outstanding, not a reported earnings line.

What It Means

The repricing rests on Q1 FY2026 results filed April 29, 2026. Revenue reached $109.90 billion, up 21.8% year over year and beating the $107.03 billion estimate by 2.67%. EPS landed at $5.11 versus the $2.63 consensus, a 94.10% beat. Net income hit $62.58 billion, including $36.91 billion in unrealized equity gains. Operating income reached $39.70 billion at a 36.1% operating margin. Google Cloud revenue grew 63% to $20.03 billion, with backlog over $460 billion. Capital expenditure more than doubled to $35.67 billion, and the dividend rose 5% to $0.22 per share quarterly.

Market Reaction

GOOG gained 13.77% in the week ending May 6, 2026, on top of a 32.75% one-month run, a 26.01% year-to-date advance, and a 140.01% one-year return. NVIDIA closed at $207.83, down 0.68% on the week, up 17% on the month, and up 11.44% year to date. The divergence narrowed the market-cap gap during a stretch where NVIDIA traded sideways.

Strategic Outlook

The $460 billion cloud backlog plus the doubled capex line signal a long-duration AI infrastructure commitment funded without compressing margin. Operating margin held at 36.1% while spending accelerated. Prediction markets remain cautious on the leadership question. Polymarket assigns a 23.5% probability to Alphabet ranking first on May 31, 2026, rising to 29.5% by December 31, 2026. The same markets price 77% odds Alphabet finishes May in second place. Analyst consensus target sits at $398.06, with 47 buys, 13 strong buys, 6 holds, and zero sell ratings. The trailing P/E of 30 and forward P/E of 28 sit well below NVIDIA’s 42 trailing multiple, leaving room for further multiple expansion if cloud growth holds.

Bottom Line

The $4.81 trillion valuation puts Alphabet in a two-stock megacap tier with NVIDIA. The next visible catalyst is NVIDIA’s fiscal Q1 2027 report, which the company has guided to roughly $78.0 billion in revenue. A clean beat would extend NVIDIA’s lead at the top. A softer print, paired with continued cloud-backlog conversion at Alphabet, would be the most direct path to closing the remaining gap. For now, prediction markets, analyst price targets, and recent price action all point to a tightening race rather than a decided one.