Costco (NASDAQ:COST | COST Price Prediction) has rebounded from its December lows to retake the $995 handle, and our proprietary model sees more room to run. With membership fee income compounding double digits and digital comp sales surging above 20%, the warehouse giant continues to defy retail gravity. Here is where I think the stock heads next.
The 24/7 Wall St. Price Target Says Buy
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Costco is $1,058.35, implying roughly 6.3% upside from the $995.75 close. Our recommendation is buy with a high (0.9) confidence rating.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $995.75 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $1,058.35 |
| Upside | +6.3% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
A Choppy Chart Masking Strong Fundamentals
Costco is up 15.8% year to date but down 2.1% over the past month and roughly flat over one year. Shares sit just under the $1,061.11 52-week high and well above the $841.69 low.
The fundamentals look much better than the chart. Q2 FY26 (filed March 5, 2026) delivered EPS of $4.58 on revenue of $69.597 billion, both ahead of consensus, with comparable sales up 7.4% and digital comp sales up 22.6%. Membership fee income climbed 13.6% to $1.355 billion on 82.1 million paid memberships and an 89.7% renewal rate. The next earnings report lands May 28, 2026.
The Case for $1,125 and Higher
Bulls have plenty of ammunition. Executive memberships now drive 75.8% of sales, and management plans roughly 28 net new warehouses in FY26 to reach 942 locations. Digital momentum looks structural, with app visits up 63% and e-commerce traffic up 32%. Operating leverage is real, gross margin expanded 17 basis points while SG&A improved 13 basis points. Wall Street consensus sits at $1,072.16 with 3 Strong Buy and 19 Buy ratings. Our bull-case scenario projects $1,124.88 by May 2027, a 12.97% total return.
The Risks Worth Watching
The bear case starts with valuation. Costco trades at 53x trailing earnings and 46x forward, with a PEG ratio of 5. Tariff uncertainty, FX volatility, and rising employee costs were all flagged in the latest filing. A bear-case path takes shares to $968.10 over the next year, a 2.78% drawdown. It should be noted that while comparable sales growth has decelerated from peak levels, bulls would argue that traffic gains of 3.1% globally and a renewal rate near 90% reflect a flywheel that is still very much intact.
The Bottom Line: Patience Required
Our price target of $1,058.35 reflects high confidence (90%) in Costco’s membership-driven earnings engine. The factor that tips the scale is the combination of 13.6% membership fee growth and 13.81% net income growth into a defensive sector backdrop.
The bull thesis strengthens if comparable traffic stays above 3% and gross margin keeps expanding into FY27. The thesis weakens if the May 28 earnings report shows comp sales decelerating below 5% or membership renewal rolling over.
Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Costco could trade, assuming current growth and margin trends hold.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,058 |
| 2027 | $1,118 |
| 2028 | $1,180 |
| 2029 | $1,242 |
| 2030 | $1,307 |
These projections assume Costco continues warehouse expansion at the current 28-30 locations per year and protects gross margin through Kirkland Signature growth. Significant upside or downside could result from a membership fee hike, a tariff shock, or a step change in international expansion.
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