Uber Price Target Cut by Wells Fargo to $95 Due to Autonomous Vehicle Impact

Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER | UBER Price Prediction) has had a rough start to 2026. Shares are down 16.59% year-to-date, off 7.23% over the past week and sit 5.15% below where they were one year ago. The stock touched a 52-week high of $101.99 but has since retreated to $69.11.

Most analysts cluster around a consensus 12-month price target of $105.29, but Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski just moved in the opposite direction, cutting his target to $95 from $100 while keeping an Overweight rating. That still implies roughly 37% upside from current levels. The question is whether UBER can realistically reach $95 by the end of 2026.

Wells Fargo’s $95 UBER Prediction

Gawrelski’s thesis is straightforward: any fundamental impact from autonomous vehicles is a 2027-and-beyond story. That framing removes a major investor overhang. Near-term, Wells Fargo sees healthy trends balanced against a continued aggressive investment posture, with only some weather-related disruption as a minor headwind. With the stock pricing in considerable AV disruption risk, a 2027-and-beyond timeline means the core rideshare and delivery business deserves more credit than the current valuation suggests.

Key Drivers of UBER Stock Performance

1. Platform scale compounding. Uber closed Q4 2025 with 202 million monthly active platform consumers, up 18% year-over-year, completing 3.8 billion trips in the quarter, up 22%. That user base compounds quietly inside retirement accounts, generating more cash every year.
2. Free cash flow acceleration. Full-year 2025 free cash flow reached $9.763 billion, up 41.6% year-over-year, funding a $20 billion share repurchase authorization. Buybacks reduce share count over time, lifting per-share value for long-term holders.
3. AV optionality without near-term execution risk. Uber’s partnerships with Pony.ai, Rivian, and WeRide position it as the distribution layer for autonomous mobility. Uber is investing up to $1.25 billion in Rivian to supply 50,000 robotaxi vehicles and expanding European robotaxi services through a Pony.ai partnership launching in Zagreb in the second half of 2026. Retirement investors get the upside without betting on unproven AV economics today.

What Will It Take for UBER to Reach $95?

With 2,036,825,000 shares outstanding, a $95 price would imply a market cap approaching $193 billion, up from the current $142.38 billion. The path there requires three things: Q1 2026 gross bookings landing within the guided $52.0 billion to $53.5 billion range; continued EBITDA margin expansion beyond the 4.6% of gross bookings achieved in Q4 2025; and the market re-rating the stock as AV disruption fears fade into a longer timeline.

The primary risk is regulatory pressure on worker classification, which could structurally raise operating costs across both Mobility and Delivery. Even so, with 84% of covering analysts rated bullish and a CFO who recently bought shares in the open market, the conviction behind Wells Fargo’s $95 target reflects a business growing faster than its current valuation acknowledges — exactly the kind of setup retirement accounts are built to hold through.