RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX | RTX Price Prediction) reports its first-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, April 21, prior to market open. With the Iran War now driving a surge in missile demand and a $268 billion backlog in hand, this quarter is a direct test of whether RTX can convert geopolitical urgency into accelerating earnings.
Momentum Backed by a Record Backlog
Last quarter, RTX delivered a strong beat on both lines. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.55 against a $1.47 estimate, a 5.44% beat, while revenue reached $24.24 billion, topping the $22.63 billion estimate by 7.10% and rising 12.1% year over year. Pratt & Whitney was the standout, with military revenues up 30% and commercial aftermarket up 21%. Free cash flow surged to $3.195 billion, up 549.39% year over year.
Since that January report, the Iran War has intensified the defense demand narrative. Melius Research rates RTX a Buy, citing the ongoing need for missiles in the Middle East. Raytheon won a $966.7 million contract modification for its AN/TPY-2 radar system from the Missile Defense Agency, and Pratt & Whitney secured a $6.6 billion F135 engine contract covering Lots 18-19. CEO Chris Calio set the tone plainly on the Q4 call: “We understand that our products are critical to national security. And I can tell you across the organization, we absolutely feel the responsibility and urgency to deliver more and to deliver it faster.”
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q1 2026 Estimate | Q1 2025 Actual | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.51 | $1.47 | +2.7% |
| Revenue | $21.58B | $20.31B | +6.3% |
| Metric | FY2026 Guidance Midpoint | FY2025 Actual | YoY Growth |
| Adjusted EPS | $6.70 | $6.29 | +6.5% |
| Revenue | $92.5B | $88.6B | +4.4% |
Munitions Output and Margin Expansion Are the Real Story
Raytheon segment performance warrants the closest attention. Raytheon grew revenue 7% in Q4 on Patriot, GEM-T, Evolved SeaSparrow Missile, and Tomahawk volume, while adjusted operating profit rose 22%. Management guided that Raytheon’s adjusted operating profit will rise between $200 million and $300 million versus the prior year in 2026. Calio noted on the Q4 call that munitions output across critical programs rose 20% in 2025, and that SM-6 and Tomahawk output will increase again in 2026.
Tariff headwinds at Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney are another key variable to monitor. RTX flagged a roughly $850 million potential operating profit headwind from tariffs when it reported Q1 2025. Whether management quantifies a similar or updated figure for Q1 2026 will shape how investors read the full-year guide. The Pratt & Whitney powder metal GTF fleet inspection program is another variable. MRO output was up 39% in Q4 and up 26% for the full year, and management expects that momentum to continue, but any slippage in AOG trends will draw scrutiny.
The F135 engine program also deserves attention. Pratt & Whitney has invested over $1 billion in capacity expansion and increased production rates by 20% to meet global demand. With over 1,400 F135 engines already delivered, any update on Lots 18-19 production ramp will be a meaningful signal. The full-year book-to-bill of 1.56 and a defense backlog of $107 billion provide strong revenue visibility, but execution on delivery timelines is where credibility gets built or lost.
A Quarter That Tests the Execution Thesis
RTX shares are up 7.34% year to date and 49.86% over the past year. Analysts carry an average price target of $216.34 against a current price of $196.21. RTX has beaten consensus EPS in each of the four quarters of 2025. If Q1 2026 continues that streak while management holds firm on full-year guidance, the Iran War demand narrative gets quantitative confirmation. That is the moment the stock’s forward multiple starts to look more justified.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks