RTX (NYSE:RTX | RTX Price Prediction) reports first-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Tuesday, April 21. With the Iran War driving elevated defense demand and a massive commercial aerospace backlog behind it, this print will tell us whether execution is keeping pace with the geopolitical tailwind.
Momentum Meets a Tougher Comparison
Last quarter, RTX delivered adjusted EPS of $1.55 against a $1.47 estimate, a 5.44% beat, while revenue of $24.24 billion topped the $22.63 billion estimate by 7.10% and rose 12.1% year over year. Free cash flow surged to $3.195 billion, up 549.39% year over year, and the total backlog reached $268 billion, split between $161 billion commercial and $107 billion defense.
Since that January report, the geopolitical backdrop has only intensified. WTI crude oil spiked to $114.58 on April 7 before pulling back to around $100.72, a pattern that reflects exactly the kind of conflict-driven uncertainty that accelerates defense procurement timelines. CEO Chris Calio set the tone on the Q4 call: “We understand that our products are critical to maintaining security around the world, and we fully support the Department of War’s transformation objectives to significantly increase capacity and accelerate production over a sustained period.”
The year-ago quarter sets a manageable bar. Q1 2025 adjusted EPS came in at $1.47 on revenue of $20.306 billion, with operating income of $2.035 billion up 35.85% year over year. Tariff impact was excluded from that guidance, with an estimated $850 million operating profit headwind flagged separately. How management frames tariff exposure this quarter will matter.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q1 2026 Estimate | Q1 2025 Actual | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.51 | $1.47 | +2.7% |
| Revenue | $21.55B | $20.306B | +6.1% |
| Metric | FY2026 Guidance Midpoint | FY2025 Actual | YoY Growth |
| Adjusted EPS | $6.70 | $6.29 | +6.5% |
| Revenue | $92.5B | $88.603B | +4.4% |
Raytheon Output and Tariff Clarity Are the Real Tests
Raytheon segment performance is the most critical watch item. Management guided for Raytheon adjusted operating profit growth of $200 to $300 million versus the prior year in 2026, with 85% of 2026 sales already in backlog and a book-to-bill of 1.43 for full year 2025. Munitions output across critical programs rose 20% in 2025, and management expects SM-6 and Tomahawk output to increase again in 2026. A $904.6 million contract modification for the Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense System was awarded just this week, bringing the total contract value to $5.36 billion, signaling continued demand conversion.
Tariffs are the other critical variable. RTX flagged tariff headwinds as a partial offset at Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney in its FY2026 guidance. Collins expects an approximately $75 million tariff tailwind in 2026 versus a 90 basis point headwind in 2025, but any revision to that estimate will draw immediate scrutiny. How management quantifies the net tariff impact in Q1 specifically will shape the credibility of the full-year guide.
Pratt & Whitney’s GTF fleet management program is a third watch item. MRO output rose 39% in Q4 and 26% for the full year, with AOGs down over 20% from 2025 highs. Cash compensation outflows are expected at $700 million for 2026, down from $1 billion in 2025, which should provide a visible margin tailwind. Any slippage in AOG trends or upward revision to cash outflows would undercut that story fast. The GTF Advantage engine received EASA certification and entry into service is expected later in 2026, making any production or certification update a meaningful signal.
RTX has beaten EPS estimates in all four quarters of 2025, with an average surprise of roughly 12% across that run. Day-of price reactions have ranged from down 9.81% (Q1 2025) to up 7.67% (Q3 2025), so a beat alone does not guarantee an immediate pop. The stock is up 7.14% year to date but down 3.61% over the past week, suggesting some pre-earnings caution has crept in.
Execution Credibility Is What Moves the Multiple
Analysts carry an average price target of $215.66 against a current price near $197, implying meaningful upside if management holds the full-year guide intact. The stock trades at a P/E of 40, a premium that demands consistent delivery. If RTX confirms the Iran War demand narrative with hard backlog conversion data and holds its EPS guidance range, sentiment could shift quickly. This is the quarter where operational discipline either validates the premium or invites the skeptics.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks