CNBC’s Fast Money panel recently made a notable pivot on its April 24 episode, arguing that Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO | NVO Price Prediction) now offers a more compelling setup than GLP-1 category leader Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) after a peak-to-current decline of roughly 68% from Novo’s mid-2024 high near $127 to recent levels near $40.
The Catalyst: A Soft Launch for Lilly’s Oral Pill
The pivot was triggered by early prescription data on Lilly’s newly approved oral GLP-1, Fendayo. The pill drew about 3,700 prescriptions in its second week, while Novo’s competing oral offering posted over 18,000 prescriptions in a comparable window. Lilly’s quarter was otherwise overpowering. Q1 2026 revenue hit $19.80 billion with EPS of $8.55, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $82.0–$85.0 billion. CEO David Ricks called Foundayo’s approval “a key milestone.”
The Valuation Reset
A panelist on the show, named Karen, who bought Novo shares the day of the segment, framed the math directly. Despite Lilly’s years of outperformance, “in 2026, a dollar in each at December 31st is now worth exactly the same, $0.82.” Year-to-date, NVO is down 18.08% while LLY is down 20.66%. Even though both have seem similar price performance, the multiples look very different, with Novo trading at roughly 12x earnings, while Lilly sits closer to 26x.
That discount reflects weaker near-term expectations, with Novo guiding for -5% to -13% sales growth in 2026 after posting 10% constant-currency growth in 2025. One caller pushed back, arguing that Novo still has “time on its side” given its leadership in the GLP-1 market. But he framed the opportunity more as a trade than a true turnaround, suggesting this could be a short-term catch-up rather than a sustained re-rating.
The Dividend Yield Angle
One panelist framed Novo as a “get paid to wait” story, pointing to a projected 6.5%+ free cash flow yield in 2027 alongside a roughly 4% dividend yield. For investors focused on returns rather than momentum, those numbers stand out. Lilly offers a very different profile. The stock still trades at a premium multiple, with a P/E closer to 38x, and relies more heavily on continued growth execution to justify that valuation.
The Bigger Picture
The backdrop helps explain why this debate is happening now. Over the past three years, Lilly has massively outperformed, turning $1 into $2.30, while Novo fell to just $0.48 over the same period. That gap created the conditions for today’s setup. Now, the performance is starting to converge, and investors are asking whether valuation should follow.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks