XRP Climbs Above $1.40: The 1.16B Wall at $1.45 That XRP Has to Clear

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading at $1.41 today after a modest 2% gain over the last 24 hours, climbing back toward $1.45—a level it struggled to clear in the last days of April. The coin had been trading in the $1.35-$1.39 range since the start of May, but is now settling around $1.41.

XRP has an average return of 23% in May, which has made traders curious about its potential to trade above $1.45. However, that level is also where 1.16 billion XRP are waiting to be sold, by holders who bought around $1.44 and are waiting to exit at break-even. We looked at why $1.45 keeps rejecting XRP and whether it can finally break through in May.

Why $1.45 Keeps Rejecting XRP

The $1.44-$1.46 zone is the most crowded price point for sellers, where holders who bought there earlier this year are waiting to exit at break-even. Glassnode data shows that roughly 60% of XRP’s circulating supply—about 36.8 billion XRP—is held at an average cost basis of $1.44. Millions of XRP holders have been underwater for months and are waiting for a chance to break even.

Around 1.16 billion of those tokens were bought specifically at the $1.44 to $1.46 range, making it the densest cluster of underwater holders in the entire 36.8 billion. XRP’s upside moves will keep running into the same wall until that supply gets sold off.

Every time XRP has approached $1.45, those holders don’t hesitate to exit. The selling adds pressure as XRP’s momentum builds, which is why the coin has struggled to hold gains at or near the $1.45 level. When the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, the coin rallied to $1.60. But it slipped below $1.45 shortly after as the Fed’s hawkish hold and rising oil prices wiped out the gains.

For XRP to break through, the buying pressure must outweigh the sell orders waiting at the $1.44-$1.46 price range. If that doesn’t happen, even XRP’s 23% average performance in May may not be enough to keep it trading above $1.45.

What Could Push XRP Above $1.45?

For XRP to trade and hold above $1.45, buying demand alone isn’t enough. It needs catalysts strong enough to absorb the supply overhand at $1.45.

CLARITY Act

The CLARITY Act—which would clarify XRP’s status as a commodity under U.S. federal law—is one major catalyst for the XRP price. The expectations of the bill’s passage in May have helped XRP’s momentum in April, with the coin seeing a modest 2% gain after three months of consecutive monthly losses.

Support from policymakers also improved XRP’s momentum. Lawmakers—like Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Cynthia Lummis—have backed the CLARITY Act’s passage, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have pressured the Senate to fast-track the bill to Trump’s desk for signing.

If the Senate Banking Committee marks up the bill by the second week of May, it could bring in the institutional buying that XRP needs to clear $1.45.

The U.S. and Iran Conflict

The Middle East tensions between the U.S. and Iran have played a key role in XRP’s bearish performances since the start of Q1. When disagreements escalated between both countries—like in February and March—investors turned to safer bets like gold and oil, and crypto assets moved into extreme fear territory.

However, the ceasefire since early April has helped XRP trade above $1.50 before profit-taking pulled it back. Now, markets are watching key developments between both countries. Iranian news media reported that Iran sent a 14-point peace proposal—through Pakistan intermediaries—to the U.S. last week. One of the negotiation points was that both countries should reach a peace deal within a 30-day window.

Recent reports say that Iran struck U.S. vessels trying to pass the Strait of Hormuz today. This comes after U.S. President Donald Trump announced “Project Freedom“—an operation aiming to guide stranded vessels through the Strait—through a Truth Social post on Sunday evening. Although the U.S. has denied these reports, the back-and-forth has shaken investor confidence in the ceasefire holding.

If tensions ease and a deal is reached, risk appetite returns to the market. That shift in sentiment could help XRP push through the sell wall and sustain above $1.45.

Can XRP Break $1.45 in May?

XRP can clear $1.45 in May, but only if buying overwhelms the sell wall. Right now, the path to that price point is looking feasible. XRP needs around 3% growth from current levels to trade at $1.45, which isn’t impossible considering how high XRP has moved in the past. 

When you look at XRP’s 23% average return in May, it reflects that the upside potential is there, and XRP just needs its key catalysts going for it. The real test is absorbing the selling pressure around that price point and staying above it. If XRP can manage that, the next upside targets are the $1.55 and $1.80 levels.