Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP | SHOP Price Prediction) has had a brutal start to 2026, with shares down 33.14% year to date after peaking near $163.14 in December 2025. With the stock now trading at $107.37, our proprietary model sees a setup worth leaning into.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Shopify is $114.78 over the next 12 months, implying 7.09% upside. Our recommendation is buy, with a high confidence reading of 90%. The thesis is straightforward: Shopify is compounding revenue above 30% with rising free cash flow, and the recent drawdown has reset valuation expectations.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $107.37 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $114.78 |
| Upside | 7.09% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
How a $163 Stock Became a $107 Stock
The selling has been relentless. SHOP is down 11.81% over the past week and 8.98% over the past month, sitting roughly 12% from its 52-week high of $182.19. The proximate trigger was the Q1 2026 earnings reaction on April 2, 2026, when shares fell 15.62% on the day despite generally healthy operating fundamentals.
The numbers themselves remain impressive. Q4 2025 revenue hit $3.67 billion, up 30.58% YoY, beating consensus by 2.34%, marking 11 consecutive quarters of 25%+ revenue growth. Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $11.56 billion with free cash flow of $2.01 billion. Management followed up by authorizing a $2 billion share repurchase program effective February 17, 2026.
The Case for $179 and Beyond
Bulls have plenty to point at. Merchant Solutions revenue grew 35% YoY to $2.90 billion in Q4, GMV jumped 31% to $123.84 billion, Shop Pay GMV surged 62%, and B2B GMV nearly doubled at 96% growth. AI commerce tools (Sidekick, Catalog, Universal Commerce Protocol) are extending the moat, and SHOP now controls over 14% of US ecommerce. With 39 buy ratings against just 1 sell and the average analyst target at $159.49, our bull-case scenario projects SHOP could reach $179 within 12 months, a 67% return.
The Risks Worth Watching
The forward P/E component of our model flagged the obvious concern: at an implied P/E of 149 and a current trailing P/E of 107, SHOP is priced for perfection. Net income fell 42.5% YoY in Q4, and transaction and loan losses ballooned to $148 million in Q3 from $58 million a year earlier.
Bulls would counter that the GAAP net income decline largely reflects equity investment mark-to-market swings rather than operational deterioration, and lending losses scale with a growing $1.73 billion Shopify Capital portfolio. Still, tariffs, consumer spending softness, and AI capex all loom. Our bear-case scenario points to $104.14 over the next 12 months.
What to Watch From Here
Our price target of $114.78 reflects a reset valuation against a still-elite operating engine. Our recommendation is buy at 90% confidence. The bull case requires Shopify sustaining low-thirties revenue growth (Q1 2026 guidance calls for exactly that) while protecting low-to-mid teens FCF margins. The bear case emerges if the consumer cracks or if AI investment compresses operating margins faster than revenue scales. The next catalyst arrives August 4, 2026.
Shopify Price Prediction 2026-2030
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $114.78 |
| 2027 | $117.26 |
| 2028 | $128.29 |
| 2029 | $137.57 |
| 2030 | $143.17 |
These projections assume Shopify continues executing on AI commerce expansion and international growth. Significant upside or downside could result from accelerated enterprise wins like Estée Lauder or, conversely, a sustained consumer spending recession.
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