Wall Street Is Bearish on General Motors Stock

General Motors Company (NYSE:GM | GM Price Prediction) has had a turbulent stretch heading into Q2. Shares are down 2.89% over the past week and have fallen 6.33% over the past month, with a year-to-date decline of 10.05%. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of $87.62, even after a strong 54.88% gain over the past year.

Most analysts carry a consensus target of $94.88, but Barclays analyst Dan Levy trimmed his target to $105 from $110 while maintaining an Overweight rating. From the current price of $72.98, that target implies upside of roughly 44% and sits well above the Street average. Barclays’ $105 target implies meaningful upside from current levels.

Dan Levy’s $105 GM Prediction

Levy updated his models across the autos and mobility group ahead of Q1 reports, trimming near-term estimates while holding conviction in GM’s longer-term earnings power. The adjustment reflects real headwinds: Q1 2026 tariff costs are expected to run $750 million to $1 billion, slightly above Q4’s $700 million. Yet GM’s full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $11.00 to $13.00 and a forward P/E of just 5.82 suggest the stock is pricing in more risk than fundamentals warrant.

Key Drivers of GM Stock Performance

1. Earnings power and capital returns: GM delivered full-year adjusted EPS of $10.60 in 2025, beating estimates, and guided for $11.00 to $13.00 in 2026. The company repurchased approximately 91 million shares in 2025 and authorized a new $6 billion buyback with no expiration, compounding per-share value for long-term holders.
2. North America margin recovery: Management guided for North America EBIT-adjusted margins to return to the 8% to 10% range in 2026, up from 6.1% in Q4 2025. That expansion, supported by a $1 billion warranty cost improvement and $500 million to $750 million in regulatory savings, is a durable tailwind for the company’s earnings trajectory.
3. Software and services growth: Super Cruise revenue is expected to grow to approximately $400 million in 2026 from $234 million in 2025, with deferred revenue projected to climb from $5.4 billion to roughly $7.5 billion by year-end. This recurring, software-like revenue stream adds earnings quality that traditional auto valuations tend to underweight.

What Will It Take for GM to Reach $105?

With 903,968,000 shares outstanding, a $105 price would put GM’s market cap near $94.9 billion, up from roughly $65.97 billion today. Getting there requires GM to execute on its $13 billion to $15 billion EBIT-adjusted guidance, demonstrate that tariff headwinds are manageable, and sustain buyback momentum. Q1 2026 earnings, expected on or around April 27, will be the first real test of whether management’s guidance holds.

The primary risk is tariff escalation or EV incentive pressure that exceeds what GM can offset through pricing and cost actions. With a sub-6 forward earnings multiple, a growing dividend, and a management team that has beaten estimates in all four quarters of 2025, Barclays’ $105 target reflects a credible path given GM’s earnings power and capital return program.